9/7 Almanac

Markets are closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6. On Tuesday, Sept. 7: The 4-week Treasury bill announcement. Seriously, that's all on the calendar.

There are 11 days before the September options expire, 39 the October and 74 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

MO Watch

The parabolic sar has moved to bull phase on Altria Group Inc. (MO). The stock is trading near the top of its recent range.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
MO $22.86

9/3 Forex

• Euro shows bull phase against the yen (EUR/JPY), but it's ghosting.
• Dollar moves to bear phase against the peso (USD/MXN).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.29		US$1.27 sep1	US$1.31	US$1.24
USD/JPY¥84.43		¥85.15 aug24	¥86.06	¥82.82
GBP/USD US$1.54		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.58	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.60		¥108.06 sep3	¥108.43	¥103.21
USD/CAD C$1.04		C$1.07 sep1	C$1.09	C$1.03
USD/MXN M$12.93		M$13.07 sep2	M$13.50	M$12.72

9/3 Morningline

• Stocks gap up on job losses. Put on a happy face? (SPY, QQQQ)
• Nasdaq 100 moves to bull phase on the macd (QQQQ).
• Treasury long-term bonds drop below the 20-day moving average (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt turns bullish on the macd (JNK).
• Crude oil shows bull phase on macd, Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) (USO).
• Gold moves to bear phase on the fast stochastic (GLD).
• Macd shows bull phase on the euro in trading against the dollar (EUR/USD).
• Dollar in macd bull phase against the yen (USD/JPY).
• Macd turns bullish on emerging markets (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

So, the U.S. is still hemorrhaging jobs, and that sad news for workers is greeted by universal bullish joy on nearly all the markets except for bonds. What gives?

9/3 Almanac

On Friday, Sept. 3: Employment. All U.S. markets are closed Monday for Labor Day.

There are 15 days before the September options expire, 43 the October and 78 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

MO Watch

Tobacco-maker Altria Group Inc. (MO) has whipsawed into bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) but remains locked in a sideways range.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
MO $22.79

9/2 Forex

• Dollar moves to bear phase against the loonie (USD/CAD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.28		US$1.27 sep1	US$1.31	US$1.24
USD/JPY¥84.44		¥85.15 aug24	¥86.06	¥82.82
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.58	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.22		¥107.13 aug31	¥108.43	¥103.21
USD/CAD C$1.05		C$1.07 sep1	C$1.09	C$1.03
USD/MXN M$13.04		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.50	M$12.72

9/2 Morningline

• Parabolic sar moves to bull phase on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (SPY, QQQQ).
• Nasdaq 100 macd turns bullish (QQQQ).
• Fear index moves to bull phase on the macd (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds whipsaw wildly to bear phase (TLT).
• Corporate high-yield debt now in bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (JNK).
• Gold negates fast stochastic bear signal; back in bull phase (GLD).
• Parabolic sar moves to bull phase on the euro in trading against the dollar (EUR/USD).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The Treasury long bonds (TLT) have whipsawed three times in four days, the last being a move to bear phase in mid-day trading on Wednesday on a large volume spike.

A lower TLT means traders expect high yields going forward, which means they think the Fed is more likely to raise raise rates to cool the economic and to nip inflation in the bud.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Why did the markets rise?

According to a Wall Street Journal headline, "Stocks Gain as Economic Fears Ease".

Really?

My theory is that it's the week before Labor Day weekend, the interns are in charge on Wall Street, and those fun-living kids are guzzling booze, using pizza boxes as Frisbees and bidding up stocks like crazy.

I've watched Mad Men on AMC. I know what New York is like!!!

9/2 Almanac

On Thursday, Sept. 2: Pending home sales, productivity.

There are 16 days before the September options expire, 44 the October and 79 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

EBAY Watch

Former bear play eBay Inc. (EBAY) has whipsawed into bull phase with price push well above the trading range. I'd vote it off the island as a disgrace to technical analysis, but it actually could make a pretty fair bull play.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
EBAY $23.85

XRX Watch

Xerox Corp. (XRX) moves off of my bear chart today with bull signals from Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), the parabolic sar and the fast stochastic. Also, a pretty good price rise.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
XRX $8.83

NLY Watch

The on-again off-again bull signal on Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) is on-again with a strong push above the 20-day moving average. I wrote about the stock twice on Tuesday, in the morning and in the afternoon laying out the case for a bull position, and that analysis remains valid.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
NLY $17.54

AOD Watch

Former prior dividend play Alpine Total Dynamic Dividend Fund (AOD) is showing bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal on the second up-day in a row.

The yield fell from primo to pretty good as a result of the euro-zone debt crisis, and the price followed for a 36% capital loss. At a 12.7% annual yield, it will take some work to get this fund back into the first ranks.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
AOD $5.18

LVS Watch

After closing below the 20-day moving average for two days running, Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS). has pushed back above that key level and is intermittently showing bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps).

The pps bull signal may yet prove to be a Cheshire Cat, disappearing without a trace. That doesn't detract from my bullish assessment posted last Friday.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
LVS $29.06

9/1 Forex

• New monthly Person's Pivot levels for all currency pairs.
• Euro show bull signal against the dollar, ghosting to the bullside against the yen (EUR/USD, EUR/JPY).
• Dollar drops sharply against the loonie, peso, but no signals.

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.28		US$1.27 sep1	US$1.31	US$1.24
USD/JPY¥84.44		¥85.15 aug24	¥86.06	¥82.82
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.58	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥108.22		¥107.13 aug31	¥108.43	¥103.21
USD/CAD C$1.05		C$1.06 aug31	C$1.09	C$1.03
USD/MXN M$13.04		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.50	M$12.72

9/1 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 show bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), parabolic sar, fast stochastic in early trading (SPY).
• Fear index turns bearish on the fast stochastic (VIX).
• Pps gives bear signal for crude oil, fast stochastic turns bullish (USO).
• Emerging markets show pps, parabolic sar bull phase on a gap upward (EEM).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

9/1 Almanac

On Wednesday, Sept. 1: Manufacturing index.

There are 17 days before the September options expire, 45 the October and 80 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

VIX Watch

The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) bull phase that showed this morning on the VIX -- the so-called "fear index" -- has melted away, something the pps has a tendency to do in a wishy-washy market.

So the indicator remains in bear phase, which suggests a tendency for the S&P 500 to rise near-term.

The signals are quite mixed -- bearish on the pps and parabolic sar, bullish on the fast stochastic and macd. The price is above the 20-day moving average.

NLY Update

The Person's Proprietary Signal (pps) bull phase on Annaly Capital Management (NLY), which I discussed this morning, has disappeared.

The phenomenon is called "ghosting", and it means the conditions that produced the morning signal changed during the day, invalidating the signal.

The pps is particularly prone to this this (so is the fast stochastic and, to a lesser extent, the macd).

The price remains just below the 20-day moving average. It moved above slightly before retreating.

The fast stochastic continues to push upward through neutrality, and the macd is moving toward the zero line. So some bullish elements remain in place. I'll continue to track NLY to see whether it indeed moves to a persistent bull phase or plays Cheshire Cat instead.

MO Watch

So, a CEO walks into a traders bar and says, "OK, guys, I've got a tip for you. You heard it here first. I've raised my dividend twice this year. I'm gonna do it again." The bar patrons all slam down their drinks and shout, "Sell! Sell! Sell!"

It makes no sense. And it's not even funny. But that's what's happening to the tobacco+otherstuff company Altria Group Inc. (MO), whose dividend was raised a few days back and which today has fallen through the 20-day moving average with bear signs across the board.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
MO $22.40

NLY Watch

Real-estate investment trust Annaly Capital Management (NLY) has moved to bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps). The dividend play has a current yield of 15.58%, paid in quarterly installments.

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
$17.36

8/31 Forex

• U.S. dollar whipsaws back to bull phase against the Canadian loonie (USD/CAD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.53		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.54		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥107.53		¥107.37 aug17	¥115.86	¥104.43
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.06 aug31	C$1.08	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.17		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.37	M$12.24

8/31 Morningline

• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 negate bull signals on the fast stochastic; turn back to the bear (SPY, QQQQ).
• Fear index shows bull phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), but it's ghosting (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds whipsaw back into bull phase on the pps (TLT).

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

The major stock/bond indicators are all showing signs of resurgent downwardness for stock prices and bond yields. Bearishness in stocks (SPY, QQQQ) means bonds (TLT) become more attractive, so traders bid up bond prices, reducing their yields. Meanwhile, the so-called "fear index" (VIX) -- volatility of the S&P 500 -- shows bullishness as traders turn bearish on stocks.

It's all typical behavior. The VIX, however, is ghosting -- the pps signal is appearing and disappearing -- suggesting the bear trend in stocks is not all that strong.

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

8/31 Almanac

On Tuesday, Aug. 31: Fed minutes, consumer confidence, metro-area home prices.

There are 18 days before the September options expire, 46 the October and 81 the November.

On the jump, market stats, econ reports, and the trading calendar . . .

8/30 Forex

• Euro moves to bull phase against the yen (EUR/JPY).
• U.S. dollar turns bearish against Canadian loonie (USD/CAD).

	pps	pps open	upper pivot	lower pivot
EUR/USD US$1.27		US$1.32 aug11	US$1.34	US$1.25
USD/JPY¥84.65		¥85.15 aug24	¥88.41	¥83.96
GBP/USD US$1.55		US$1.59 aug11	US$1.60	US$1.51
EUR/JPY ¥107.41		¥107.37 aug17	¥115.86	¥104.43
USD/CAD C$1.06		C$1.05 aug27	C$1.06	C$1.01
USD/MXN M$13.15		M$12.70 aug20	M$13.37	M$12.24

8/30 Morningline

OK. I have my charts back, although they're slow as molasses on a February day in Wasilla, Alaska.

• Fear index moves to bear phase on Person's Proprietary Signal (pps), parabolic sar; to bull phase on the fast stochastic (VIX).
• Treasury long-term bonds turn bearish on two major signals (TLT).
• High-yield corporate debt remains mixed on the pps and psar (JNK).
• Crude oil moves to bull phase on the pps, psar (EEM).
• No new signals on the dollar-yen currency pair despite Bank of Japan emergency action to devalue the yen (USD/JPY).

Many of the signal changes happened in afternoon trading on Friday. The Bank of Japan met to loosen constraints on economic growth and therefore to weaken the yen, improving the position of Japanese exports to the United States and in other dollar-denominated transactions. Says the Market, "No big."

Stocks and Rates

	trend	adx	psar	pps	macd	macd trend	sto	sto zone
SPY
QQQQ
VIX
TLT
JNK

Below, oil and gold, and global indicators.

Chart Problems

I'm having major problems with the ThinkOrSwim platform that I use for my technical analysis. The Morningline and Forex reports will be delayed.