Thursday, September 29, 2016

Thursday's Outcomes

All of today's trades used shares as a vehicle under my small-lots approach.

I entered one position late in the day.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
MOMO99/20/201623.14rsi

MOMO began the day with a deteriorating Stochastic-RSI signal, but it improved as the closing bell approached, and I made the trade.

I exited three positions: OCLR, SNCR and SORL. See Thursday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 29, 2016


Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future
by Ashlee Vance

Earns Prospects 10/3 to 10/7

For the week running from Oct. 3 through Oct. 7 I have one prospective earnings play that has sufficient liquidity to support an options positions: MU, which publishes on Oct. 4 after the closing bell.

Here is the full list of 30 earnings prospects, including those that may qualify for small-lots shares trades.


Heads I Win, Tails I Win: Why Smart Investors Fail and How to Tilt the Odds in Your Failure
by Spencer Jakab


Thursday's Small Lots

I entered no small-lots shares positions on Thursday. Two prospects, MOMO and SAN, seemed promising at the market open, but they disappointed as the morning wore on and I a decided not to trade them. (See Thursday's Agenda.)

I exited three positions -- emptying my experimental small-lots account of positions -- as their Stochastic-RSI analyses deteriorated.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
OCLR229/28/20169/29/20169.028.68-0.34-3.92%-1430%1rsi
SNCR59/19/20169/29/201641.7541.750.000.00%0%10rsi
SORL499/28/20169/29/20164.013.90-0.11-2.82%-1029%1rsi

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 29, 2016


Chart Patterns: After the Buy
by Thomas N. Bulkowski

Thursday's Agenda

I have six prospects on my desk this morning, all of them small-lots shares trades.

The four price channel breakouts all are failing to show continued upward momentum this morning. I am taking them out of the running.

The two Stochastic-RSI signals -- MOMO and SAN -- are still in the race, but they are ambiguous at this point. I'll revisit them later in the trading session and make a final decision about trading.

See Thursday's Prospects for more.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 29, 2016


Illusions of Wealth: Actively Manage Your Investments or Expect Losses in this Volatile Economy
by Doug Eberhardt

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Thursday's Prospects

Screening of the Wednesday, Sept. 28 markets identified six prospective trades out of the two datasets and four strategies that I'm using.

This week, for options trading, I reviewed nearly 500 symbols in my large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds, and for share trading, I reviewed more than 1,000 symbols of stocks and funds of all capitalizations. For both I reviewed 77 companies publishing earnings.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

 options  shares 
price channelN/A4
earnings00
volatility0N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A2

I shall make final trading decisions on Thursday, Sept. 29.


Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization
by Parag Khanna


Below are the candidates for analysis for each cell of the quadrant.

Wednesday's Outcomes

I completed three trades today, all of them shares under my small-lots approach. I entered positions in OCLR and SORL, and I exited a position in LNKD.

See Wednesday's Small Lots for details.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 28, 2016


This Brave New World: India, China and the United States
by Anja Manuel

Wednesday's Small Lots

I entered two position using my small-lots shares approach.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
OCLR229/28/20169.02rsi
SORL499/28/20164.08rsi

I exited one positions.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
LNKD19/27/20169/28/2016193.18192.31-0.87-0.45%-165%1channel


FinTech Innovation: From Robo-Advisors to Goal Based Investing and Gamification
by Paolo Sironi

Wednesday's Agenda

All three prospects today are candidates for shares trades under my small-lots approach.

Two of the prospects, OCLR and SORL, have bullish Stochastic-RSI indicators and remain candidates for trading.

I'm declining to trade AOS, my prospective trade based on a price channel breakout. It isn't showing followthrough to the upside this morning, and moreover, it's stock will split 2:1 in about a week, probably putting an end to the upside momentum.

See Wednesday's Prospects for more.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 27, 2016


Traders of the New Era
Expanded Edition
by Fernando and Leandro Oliveira

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Wednesday's Prospects

Screening of the Tuesday, Sept. 27 markets identified three prospective trades out of the two datasets and four strategies that I'm using.

This week, for options trading, I reviewed nearly 500 symbols in my large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds, and for share trading, I reviewed more than 1,000 symbols of stocks and funds of all capitalizations. For both I reviewed 77 companies publishing earnings.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

 options  shares 
price channelN/A1
earnings00
volatility0N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A2

I shall make final trading decisions on Wednesday, Sept. 28.


The Art of Risk: The New Science of Courage, Caution, and Chance
by Kayt Sukei


Below are the candidates for analysis for each cell of the quadrant.

Tuesday's Outcomes

All trades today were shares using my small lots strategy.

I entered a position on LNKD and exited positions on CLD, SNX and VVUS.

See Tuesday's Small Lots for details.

I have a trade open to exit my options position on GDXJ. If I get a fill today, then I shall advise and update this post.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 27, 2016


The FINTECH Book: The Financial Technology Handbook for Investors, Entrepreneus and Visionaries
by Susanne Chishti

Tuesday's Small Lots

I entered one position based on my small-lots shares strategy.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
LNKD19/27/2016193.18channel

I exited three positions.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
CLD419/22/20169/27/20164.784.39-0.39-8.88%-649%5channel
SNX29/26/20169/27/2016106.67115.148.477.36%2685%1earns
VVUS1729/26/20169/27/20161.161.190.032.52%920%1channel

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 27, 2016


Higher Probability Commodity Trading
by Carley Garner

Tuesday's Agenda

The price-channel breakout LNKD continued to rise,qualifying for a trade under my small-lots shares strategy.

The other price-channel breakout among my prospects withdrew below the channel, disqualifying it. The prospect based on a Stochastic-RSI signal also deteriorated and was disqualified.

See Tuesday's Prospects for the full list of potential trades.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 27, 2016


The Rise and Fall of American Growth
by Robert J. Gordon

Monday, September 26, 2016

Tuesday's Prospects

Screening of the Monday, Sept. 26 markets identified three prospective trades out of the two datasets and four strategies that I'm using.

This week, for options trading, I reviewed nearly 500 symbols in my large-cap stocks and exchange-traded funds, and for share trading, I reviewed more than 1,000 symbols of stocks and funds of all capitalizations. For both I reviewed 77 companies publishing earnings.

I use four strategies in my trading, in response to trading signals (such as breakouts above the 20-day price channel), high implied options volatility, and persistently rising trends on a charts signaled by the stochastic-relative strength index indicator, and in anticipation of events ( such as earnings announcements).

 options  shares 
price channelN/A2
earnings00
volatility0N/A
stochastic-rsiN/A1

I shall make final trading decisions on Tuesday, Sept. 27.


A Complete Guide to Volume Price Analysis
by Anna Coulling


Below are the candidates for analysis for each cell of the quadrant.

Monday's Outcomes

Today's five trades were all part of my small-lots strategy using shares.

I exited three positions, GRUB, PSI and VDSI, and I entered two more, SNX and VVUS.

See Monday's Small Lots for details.

The PSI trade was executed after the Small Lots tables were posted. Here are the details of that late trade.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
PSI69/15/20169/26/201631.2531.700.451.42%47%11rsi

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 26, 2016


Buffettology: The Previously Unexplained Techniques
Mary Buffett and David Clark

Monday's Small Lots

I entered two small-lots shares positions.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
SNX29/26/2016106.67earns
VVUS1729/26/20161.16channel

I exited two positions, both for a loss.

symsharesentry dateexit dateentry price per shareexit price per shareresult $result %annual ratedays heldtactic
GRUB59/22/20169/26/201643.1542.15-1.00-2.37%-216%4rsi
VDSI119/15/20169/26/201618.5018.43-0.07-0.38%-13%11rsi

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 26, 2016


Understanding Price Action
by Bob Volman

Monday's Agenda

Of the four earnings prospects using shares as a vehicle, only SNX continues to qualify for a trade. The other three symbols lack the likelihood of an upside earnings surprise in analysis by Zacks Investment Research.

The one price-channel breakout, VVUS, continues to trade higher today and qualifies for a shares trade.

The three Stochastic-RSI prospects have pulled back today and none qualify for trading.

See Monday's Prospects for a full list of symbols that I considered this morning.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 26, 2016


Sweat Equity: Inside the New Economy of Mind and Body
by Jason Kelly

Sunday, September 25, 2016

The Week Ahead: GDP, Homes, Durables, Trade, Income & a Flood of Fed Officials

Gross domestic product for the 2nd quarter gets its third and final estimate on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The report will contain two of the measures the Federal Open Market Committee considers in deciding whether raise the federal funds rate, economic growth -- the GDP itself -- and inflation, as measured by the GDP report's deflator, statistic the FOMC is said to prefer to the headline-generating consumer price index.

Otherwise, four major economic reports, each in a separate area of the economy, will help shape the narrative of the market during the week.

In real estate, new home sales will be published on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time.

In manufacturing, look for durable goods orders, out Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Global trade has its moment on Thursday with the release of international trade in goods at 8:30 a.m.

And the American consumer takes center stage with the release of personal income and outlays on Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has two appearances during the week.

On Wednesday at 10 a.m. she testifies about supervision and regulation  before the House Committee on Financial Services.

On Thursday she takes part in a forum for minority banking sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, at 4 p.m. New York time.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

The index of consumer expectations from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey at 10 a.m. Friday.



Book of Value: The Fine Art of Investing Wisely
by Anurag Sharma