9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory

Decision Points.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 3, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply overnight as the session’s opening bell approached, reaching 7604.75, then falling into the 7570s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues. It is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Within wave E{-5}, the final subwave, wave C{-6}, is underway. At present, our analysis is focused on a declining C wave that began on October 6.

Decision Points. Theovernight decline reached 7546, establishing a new low in the correction. A further decline below that level would strengthen the interpretation that the falling C wave remains underway.

A rise above the overnight high of 7604.75 would signal a stronger upward correction within the decline, but would not invalidate the larger wave count.

A rise above 7819.50, the October 29 high, would invalidate the interpretation that the current declining C wave began at that point and require a reassessment of its internal structure.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 3, 2026.

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 7693.75 and then turned, rapidly dropping into the 7580s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline that began last week is an A wave within the falling C wave. The rise that followed is wave B within the larger C wave, and the resumed decline is a C wave within a C wave.

A C wave has five subwaves, so we can expect a second upward correction within the larger C wave before its final fall.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7558.25 remains the immediate downside reference point. A decline below that level would extend the falling C wave.

The session high of 7693.75 provides an upside reference point. A move above it would require a reassessment of the smaller wave count, but would not by itself invalidate the larger declining structure.

The next upward correction will be a fourth subwave within the smaller C wave, followed by a fifth subwave to complete it.

9:38 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading with a sharp fall to 7558.25, followed by a rebound. The rebound reached an overnight high so far of 7662 as the opening bell approaches.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave C continues, buried several degrees deep within wave A{-6}, the initial subwave of falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025.

Neither the sharp decline nor the subsequent rebound changes the Elliott Wave count.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7558.25 is the immediate reference point for the decline. A move below that level would extend wave C and establish a new low in the correction.

The rebound to 7662 establishes a near-term reference point in the opposite direction. A rise above that level would extend the recovery but would not, by itself, invalidate the existing wave count.

The larger downward structure remains intact.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 2, 2026.

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m.. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 7560s.

Using Elliott Wave Theory, the decline strengthens the conclusion that wave C is underway within the downward correction that began on October 6. The correction is part of the much larger declining wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The starting point of wave C, Wednesday’s high of 7819.50, remains the invalidation level. A rise above that level would require a revision of the present count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked their way both higher and lower overnight, stairstepping up to the 7690s, then working their way lower to the 7660s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Wave E{-5} continues its downward journey as the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Buried deep within wave E{-5} are the waves we’re now tracking, a falling C wave within a downward correction that began on October 6.

Decision Points. The immediate downside reference is 7648.50, the October 23 low. A decline below that level would confirm that wave C is extending the correction into new lows.

A sustained rise above 7819.50, Wednesday’s peak and the starting point of wave C, would invalidate the present count of that wave.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 30, 2026

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 7720s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Within the falling wave we’ve been tracking, declining wave C has begun. Rising wave B ended at Wednesday’s peak, 7819.50, which marks the starting point of wave C.

The decline is part of the larger downward correction, wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A sustained decline below the October 23 low of 7648.50 would provide further confirmation that wave C is advancing. A rise above 7819.50 would invalidate the present count of wave C beginning at Wednesday’s high.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 7740s following the release of the GDP and PCE reports at 8:30 a.m. The initial response was relatively mild, with prices briefly rising before resuming their decline.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the movement as part of a rising B wave within declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

The overnight decline is a smaller corrective wave within B. The price movement so far provides no reason to change the Elliott wave count.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the overnight highs would support continuation of the B-wave advance. A decline below the overnight low at 7740 would suggest that the smaller downward correction is continuing.

Neither outcome, by itself, would invalidate the larger wave count.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 29, 2026

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fluctuated sharply following the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would leave interest rates unchanged. The futures initially rose into the 7790s before retreating. Despite the volatility, the market’s overall response was relatively mild.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rising third and final subwave of wave B remains underway. Wave B is part of a falling A wave, several degrees smaller than declining wave A{-6}, the first major subwave of wave E{-5}.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. A sustained advance above the FOMC reaction high, near 7790, would support continuation of the third subwave.

A decline below 7750 would suggest that the third subwave may have ended and a fourth-wave correction has begun.

Neither development would alter the larger Elliott wave count. The rising B wave remains part of the broader downward correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from an early low of 7756.25 to 7778.25.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B continues within a falling A wave, part of falling wave A{-6} — several degrees higher — which is part of wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether rising wave B has more distance to travel before turning downward.

A rise above the overnight high of 7778.25 would extend the advance. The next significant area on the two-hour chart lies around 7780 to 7800, where several earlier advances encountered resistance.

A decline below the overnight low of 7756.25 would provide evidence that wave B has ended and the next downward wave, C, has begun.

Neither outcome would alter the larger analysis. Falling wave E{-5} remains underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 28, 2026

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m.New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching a high so far of 7772.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rising B wave within the falling final wave, E{-5}, of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025, remains underway.

Decision Points. The rise from the October 23 low of 7648.50 is consistent with the expected B-wave correction. A move above 7800 would extend the recovery without requiring a change in the wave count. A decline below 7648.50 would indicate that the B-wave interpretation needs to be reconsidered. The larger expectation remains for a declining C wave to follow the completion of B.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching 7749.25 before retreating into the 7730s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the low at the end of last week, 7648.50, as the end of wave A within a series of larger subwaves within wave A{-6}.

In this structure, waves of degree {-6} have taken from one to several months to reach completion.

Wave A{-6} is the initial subwave of wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

With the completion of the smaller wave A and its five subwaves, rising wave B has begun. It will work through three subwaves before reaching its end.

Decision Points

The immediate question is how far rising wave B will carry before the larger decline resumes.

The overnight high of 7749.25 is the first reference point. A rise above that level would extend the recovery, while a failure to exceed it would leave open the possibility that wave B has already completed its upward movement.

The wave B interpretation remains valid as long as the price stays below the starting point of the preceding wave A. A decline below 7648.50 would establish that the next downward movement is underway, although the internal wave structure will determine its degree.

The larger Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues within the expanding triangle.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 27, 2026

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3.30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell.. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, from an early low of 7675.50, to 7739.50. It was a sharp rise, but not a long one.

The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from overnight. Declining wave E{-5} continues, the final wave within the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

The session’s rise is consistent with a corrective upward movement within the larger decline. It does not provide sufficient evidence to alter the principal wave count.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7739.50 would suggest that the upward correction has further to run. A decline below 7675.50 would instead strengthen the interpretation that the downward movement is resuming.

Neither development would, by itself, invalidate the principal analysis of declining wave E{-5}.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now?

The S&P 500 E-mini futures recovered modestly overnight after Friday’s decline to 7648.50, the lowest level since mid-September.

The recovery has been uneven, with prices fluctuating mainly between the 7660s and 7690s. Shortly after 9 a.m. Eastern time, the futures were trading in the 7680s.

Despite the overnight rise, the broader downward trend remains intact.

What Does It Mean?

Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline from the October 6 peak at 7897.50 as part of falling wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

Within E{-5}, the initial declining subwave, A{-6}, remains underway.

The overnight recovery may represent a small rising B wave within that decline. However, the movement has been overlapping and irregular, leaving the degree of the correction uncertain.

The 2-hour chart continues to show a succession of lower highs and lower lows. Nothing in the overnight movement requires a revision of the working Elliott Wave count.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7712.25, the recent high shown on the 5-minute chart, would strengthen the case for a more substantial upward correction within the larger decline.

A fall below Friday’s low of 7648.50 would extend the downward movement and reinforce the interpretation that falling wave A{-6} remains in progress.

Between those levels, the immediate direction remains unresolved. The larger Elliott Wave structure, however, continues to favor the downside.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 26, 2026

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell further during the session, reaching into the 7640s, their lowest level since mid-September.

Elliott Wave Theory. The early phase of declining wave E{-5} and its initial subwave, falling wave A{-6}, continue. Wave E{-5} is the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A break below the session low of 7648.50 would extend the decline. A sustained rise above the most recent minor highs in the 7700s would suggest that a corrective rebound is underway, without necessarily ending wave A{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, reaching into the 7650s, a level last seen in mid-September. The decline extends the downward movement that began after the October 6 peak at 7897.50.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as a falling A wave buried several degrees deep within declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave E{-5} is expected to unfold in three major subwaves, A{-6}, B{-6} and C{-6}. The present decline is part of the first of those waves, A{-6}.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low in the 7660s would extend the present A wave and establish a new reference point for judging the next reversal.

A rise above 7812.25, the October 21 high, would provide evidence that the present A wave may have ended and a rising B wave has begun. Confirmation would require a recognizable corrective structure.

A rise above 7897.50, the October 6 peak, would challenge the interpretation that wave E{-5} is underway and require a reassessment of the larger wave count.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3.30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued their decline Thursday, falling from Wednesday’s high in the 7810s to the 7680s. The decline carried the price below Wednesday’s low and brought it close to 7676, the low established earlier in the correction.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price movement strengthens the interpretation that Wednesday’s rise was a B wave, a temporary upward correction within a larger decline. That B wave appears to have ended, and its falling C wave is now underway.

The sequence of lower highs and falling lows is consistent with the development of wave E{-5}, the final downward wave within the expanding triangle that began October 29, 2025. The triangle is the form taken by wave 4{-4}, a large downward correction within the broader upward trend.

The decline has accelerated, suggesting that the market may be moving beyond the relatively shallow fluctuations that characterized the earlier stages of E{-5}.

The precise degree of the current falling C wave remains uncertain. Several smaller waves are nested within the larger structure, and their positions will become clearer as the decline develops.

Decision Points. The immediate point of interest is 7676, the earlier low. A decisive break below that level would establish a new low for the developing decline and provide further confirmation that wave E{-5} is progressing downward.

A rebound from that level would not necessarily invalidate the analysis. It could represent a smaller upward correction within the ongoing decline. The structure of any rebound, particularly whether it develops in three waves or five, would help clarify its position within the larger Elliott Wave count.

A sustained reversal above Wednesday’s high in the 7810s would call the identification of the current decline as a C wave into question and require a reassessment of the smaller wave structure.

The larger expectation remains unchanged: Wave E{-5} is underway, completing the expanding triangle that has dominated the market’s Elliott Wave structure for nearly a year.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began falling from Wednesday’s session high of 7812.25 and continued their decline overnight, reaching into the 7710s before recovering slightly to the 7720s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees Wednesday’s session rise as a rising B wave, a relatively small correction within a larger downward movement.

The B wave appears to have ended, giving way to a falling C wave. Both are several degrees smaller than declining wave E{-5}, the final wave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave E{-5} began from the October 6 high of 7897.50 and remains underway.

Decision Points

The overnight decline strengthens the interpretation that the rising B wave has ended and a falling C wave is underway.

The immediate question is whether the small recovery from the overnight low is merely a correction within the decline or the beginning of a more substantial upward movement.

A break below the overnight low would support the view that the falling C wave continues. A sustained rise above Wednesday’s high of 7812.25 would require reconsideration of the placement of the B-wave endpoint.

The larger Elliott wave structure remains unchanged. Wave E{-5} continues its decline toward completion of the expanding triangle. A rise above 7897.50, the starting point of wave E{-5}, would invalidate the present interpretation.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com