3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6960s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Uptrending wave 5{-8} continues. It remains below the peak of the previous 3rd wave of the same degree, 7036.25. A 5th wave can usually be expected to move beyond that peak. Sometimes it falls short, an action known as “truncation”. Sometimes it moves a ridiculous distance beyond, called “extension”. There’s no way to tell which of the three paths this 5th wave will follow.

For now, the uptrend remains intact as long as price continues to hold above the February 17 low. If price were to reverse sharply and tumble, it would imply that the present rise was a subwave of the declining wave 4{-8}, and that wave 5{-8} has not yet begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 6892.75 overnight and then began to rise, reaching the 6940s shortly after the opening opening bell sounded.

With no scheduled economic reports and no market-moving surprises from last night’s State of the Union, today’s risk skews political rather than economic. Absent unexpected legal or policy headlines, price action should be governed by internal market structure rather than news flow.

What does it mean? Big changes, made clear by events. Which is how Elliott Wave Theory analysis works.

First, I’ve changed the labeling system of waves of the {-11} degree. Wave E{-11} has become wave 5{-11}, in line with the classical Frost and Prechter book Elliott Wave Principle, which notes that the subwaves of wave C often unfold as an impulse, and are therefore numbered.

Second, it has become clear that wave 5{-11} (formerly E{-11}) ended on February 17 at 6791. The reversal from that point also ended a series of parent waves: C{-10}, C{-9} and the downward correction 4{-8}.

Now underway is wave 5{-8}, likely in its first wave one or several degrees below {-8}. In non-Elliott-Wave terminology, the market had turned bullish for awhile.

This configuration is consistent with late-stage corrective behavior, characterized by overlapping price action and limited directional conviction.

Now, a reality check. The beginning of wave 5{-8} has not yet been robustly verified. The price could still reverse to the downside, and if it goes below the February 17 low point of 6791, then the analysis no longer matches the reality of the chart, wave 4{-11} is still underway, as is wave 4{-8}, and the chart will be revised to match the lay of land.

Here are the decision points.

• 6791 — This is a critical invalidation level.
  A move below this level negates the bullish interpretation and restores the larger corrective count.
• Holding above the 6900–6920 zone — Near-term confirmation bias.
  Continued acceptance above this area supports the view that a new impulse is developing at lower degrees.
• Upside progress with overlapping structure — Proceed with caution.
  Until price action becomes more impulsive and less corrective, confidence should remain provisional.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 5{-8} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)
  • 1{-9} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low point early in the session and then began to rise, picking up the pace as the consumer confidence data was released.

Elliott Wave Theory: The magnitude of the rise suggests that downtrending wave E{-11} may have ended. It is a subwave buried several degrees deep within a broader downward correction, wave 4{-8}. If E{-11} has indeed ended, that would also mark the completion of its parent wave C{-10}, and one degree higher, wave C{-9}. In turn, that would imply the end of wave 4{-8} and the beginning of uptrending wave 5{-8}, a potentially significant reversal.

That said, the end of E{-11} has not yet been confirmed. This remains a “maybe,” not a done deal. A key question within the analysis is this: If E{-11} has ended, what was the date and price of that end?

I have placed date and price labels on two possible candidates: February 17 at 6791, and today, February 24, at 6828.50. The earlier date appears to mark the end of a clear five-wave decline. The later date is distinguished by the energy of the subsequent rise, especially when compared with the more halting advance that followed the earlier low.

I personally lean toward the earlier date as the endpoint, if wave E{-11} has truly ended. A colleague favors the later date as the terminal point.

As always, the chart will sort this out, as it always does.This is one of the reasons Elliott Wave Theory is so much fun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 6875 and then fell back into the 6840s, continuing the decline that began late yesterday.

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the chart indicates that the fourth-wave downward correction, wave 4{-8}, remains in progress. Internally, the structure continues to resolve as a nested corrective sequence: wave E{-11} within wave C{-10} within wave C{-9}.

This configuration is consistent with late-stage corrective behavior, characterized by overlapping price action and limited directional conviction.

Decision Points

By the AI ChatGPT-5.2

Acceptance above the overnight high (~6875)
→ increases odds that wave E{-11} is complete and wave 5{-8} is starting.

Sustained trade below the overnight low (~6840)
→ signals E{-11} extension; stand down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 pm., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit the day’s peak early in the session, 6930.25, and then went into a near-constant fall. In the 6830s it bounced into the 6860s, fell again and bounced. It is now repeating the test.

Elliott Wave Theory: No change from this morning. Wave E{-11} continues its decline.

Decision points. Also no change. See the section below in this morning’s analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures bided its time when trading resumed overnight, fluctuating between the 6920s and the 6860s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that a falling series of subwaves within a declining 4th-wave correction, within a subwave of a rising 4th-wave correction, are underway.

From the smaller degree to the larger, the waves are E{-11}, C{-10}, C{-9}, 4{-8}, C{-7} within wave 4{-6}.

Wave E{-11} began on February 11 from 7011.50. What happens when it ends?

Wave E{-11} is the final subwave of wave C{-10}, which is also a final wave. As is not uncommon in Elliott Wave Theory, the end of a final wave triggers a series of larger final waves, in this case up to wave 4{-8}, which began on January 13 from 7036.25. Rising wave 5{-8} will begin, eventually carrying its parent, wave C{-7}, to completion.

Decision points

,By the AI ChatGPT 

• Primary posture: Neutral / wait-and-watch.
  The market remains range-bound and directionless at the smallest degree, consistent with an ongoing wave E{-11} finalization. No action is required while price continues to fluctuate sideways within the established overnight range.
• Key structural event to monitor: The completion of wave E{-11}.
  When wave E{-11} ends, it should trigger the completion of its parent wave C{-10}, which in turn sets off a cascading completion of larger-degree corrective waves up through wave 4{-8}. This sequence would mark a structural inflection point, not necessarily an immediate directional surge.
• Upside implication (conditional):
  Confirmation of wave E{-11} completion would imply the start of rising wave 5{-8}, beginning the final advance within wave C{-7}. Any upside move should be evaluated first for impulse characteristics (range expansion, follow-through), rather than assumed continuation.
• Downside risk:
  A decisive break below the recent overnight lows would suggest that wave E{-11} is extending or morphing, delaying the anticipated resolution. In that case, expectations for a near-term transition to wave 5{-8} would be deferred.
• Headline risk overlay:
  Given the elevated uncertainty surrounding tariff-related political developments, any sudden price movement should be treated as headline-driven until proven otherwise. Structural confirmation, not speed, will determine whether a move is actionable.
• Action bias:
  No new directional commitments until wave E{-11} clearly completes and the market demonstrates acceptance of a new directional phase.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Today’s market was like a basketball in the hands of a very tall player.

First, two economic reports—the GDP production metric and the PCE price metric—came in worse than expected. Bam! The player slammed the ball to the court floor. That’s how prices fell.

A few hours later, the Supreme Court issued an opinion ruling against the legality of many tariffs imposed by President Trump during his current second term. The player grabbed the basketball on the bounce, aimed, and neatly slid it through the basket to score. That’s how prices rose after the Court’s ruling.

The S&P 500 futures reached a session low of 6847.25 in response to the GDP and PCE reports. As the Court released its decision a bit more than half an hour after the opening bell, prices rose rapidly into the 6920s, whipsawed energetically, and then reached a high of 6931.50, before settling back into the 6910s.

Elliott Wave Theory? No change. Wave E{-11} continues its downward march.

Decision points.

• 6900: Balance line. Continued overlap here favors consolidation within E{-11}.
• Below ~6875: Downside pressure likely resumes.
• Above ~6935 with follow-through: Would suggest E{-11} is ending and a counter-trend bounce is attempting to assert itself.
• Bias: Corrective volatility continues until price resolves away from the balance zone.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked overight at 6904.75 and then began to fall, reaching into the 6840s after economic reports showed Gross Domestic Product increasing less than expected and Personal Consumption Expenditures increasing more than expected.

What does it mean? The decline leaves the current Elliott Wave Theory analysis unchanged. It describes a series of falling subwaves — E{-11} within C{-10] within C{-9} — within a downward correction, wave 4{-8}, that began on January 13.

Decision points. 

• 6850–6845: Near-term support. Holding here keeps the decline consistent with an ongoing E{-11} subwave.
• Below ~6840: Increases the likelihood that E{-11} is extending, with risk shifting toward lower support within wave 4{-8}.
• Reclaim and hold above 6885: Suggests E{-11} may be ending, allowing for a counter-trend bounce inside the correction.
• Bias: Downside favored unless prior support is reclaimed with follow-through.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to drift lower during the session, reaching the mid-6840s and pressing into the lower end of the morning’s decision zone.

Elliott Wave Theory: This price action remains consistent with a counter-trend decline within wave E{-11}, and no revision to the broader Elliott Wave interpretation is warranted at this time.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly overnight, to 6912.50, and then fell sharply into the 6860s. The low point came shortly after release of economics reports, Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as a counter-trend correction within a larger decline, part of falling wave E{-11}. That E wave is part of a large dclining wave C{-10}, which in turn is part of a still larger deline, wave C{-9}.

The whole structure is part of declining wave 4{-8}, a downward correction that began on January 13 from 7036.25.

Decision points. Near-term downside reference (6860–6850 zone).
The overnight selloff carried the S&P 500 E-mini futures into the 6860s, with an intraday low near 6862 on the 5-minute chart. This zone now serves as the first decision point.

• Hold above 6850–6860: favors continued sideways-to-down consolidation within wave E{-11}, allowing for brief counter-trend rebounds.
• Sustained break below 6850: increases the odds that wave E{-11} is extending lower, opening the door to a test of the early-February lows.

Overhead resistance (6900–6915).
The overnight high at 6912.50 defines the nearest resistance band.

• Failure below 6915: keeps the decline intact and supports the interpretation of the overnight rise as a corrective bounce.
• Recovery and hold above 6915: would argue for a more complex correction, but would still be counter-trend unless followed by acceptance above 6950.

Structural invalidation level (6950–6970).
A sustained move back above the 6950–6970 region would begin to challenge the labeling of the decline as an active wave E{-11} within C{-10}.

• Until that occurs, the dominant bias remains lower within the broader wave 4{-8} correction.

Larger-degree context.
As long as price remains well below the January 27 high at 7043, the larger bearish structure — declining C{-9} within 4{-8} — remains intact. Any rallies should be treated as corrective unless proven otherwise by structure and follow-through.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rosse to 6925.75 during the session and then retreated, so far reaching the 6870s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis is unchanged. Wave E{-10] within wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} continue.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 6848.75 early in overnight trading and then began to rise, reaching 6904 before retreating to the 6870s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that the decline that began on January 13 from 7036.25 continues. It is a 4th-wave downward correction, wave 4{-8} on the chart, and is in its third subwave, wave C{-9}.

The C wave of a correction usually has five subwaves. Wave C{-9} is in its third subwave, wave C{-10}, which when complete will be followed by waves D{-10} and E{-10}.

Wave C{-10} is in its final subwave, wave E{-11}, which when complete will mark the end of wave C{-10} and the beginning of wave D{-10}.

Bottom line: The downward correction, wave 4{-8} has a while to go before it is done, casting a downward shadow on the S&P 500.

Decision points.

Bearish continuation favored while below:

• 6904 — today’s intraday high on the 5-minute chart
• 7011.50 — labeled D{-11} high (2/11) on the 55-minute chart

A break and hold above 7011.50 would:

• Weaken the active C{-9}/C{-10}/E{-11} down-structure
• Raise probability that a higher-degree corrective leg is already underway.

Downside confirmation levels:

• 6848.75 — overnight low (corrected value)
• Sustained trade below that level strengthens the case that:
  • Wave E{-11} is extending
  • Wave C{-10} is not yet complete.

The pattern implication levels:Any decisive break below the 6751.50 C{-11} low (2/5) would confirm the larger corrective structure still unfolding, and strongly support the wave 4{-8} has a while to go conclusion.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low for the day, 6791, about an hour into the session, and then rose into the 6880s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Continuing, wave E{-11} within wave C{-10} within wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} — all part of the same larger corrective structure. A sustained move above the 6880s would weaken the E{-11} interpretation; a break back below 6791 would strengthen it.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures reopened after the holiday-thinned sessions at about 6856, pushed up to 6869.75 early, and then worked lower to a session low of 6805.75. As of this update, price has rebounded to roughly 6835.

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the decline is still best read as the final subwave of wave C{-10} (started February 3) continuing within the larger corrective structure. In this count, C{-10} is the middle wave of five within C{-9} (which began January 27), and C{-9} is the final wave within wave 4{-8}, the broader correction that began January 13 from 7036.25.

In other words, there has been lots of movement in the futures since late January, but not a lot of progress in any direction.

Here are the decision points:

6805.75 (overnight low): Hold above it and the decline remains contained within the ongoing corrective chop. Break and hold below it, and the odds rise that the final leg of C{-10} is extending toward the next support shelves.

6751.50 (2/5 low): A new low below 6751.50 would be the cleanest confirmation that the decline is still pressing lower, not merely whipsawing sideways.

6869.75 (overnight high): A reclaim above this level would be the first sign that the overnight downleg is losing control and that a larger bounce is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6897.75 after dipping to 6808.75 and then fell back into the 6840s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave E{-11} continues, although it is not yet robustly confirmed, leaving open the possibility that rising wave D{-11} is now underway.

9:52 a.m. New York time

After the opening bell. After the session open, the futures broke to a fresh low at 6808.75, confirming that the post-CPI bounce did not resolve the decline and strengthening the case that wave E{-11} is still pressing lower.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed with the release of the Consumer Price Index report before the opening bell. The price fell to its low for the session, 6820, then rose to 6865 and rapidly retreating to the 6840s before rising again, remaining below the high point of the initial rise.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to show falling wave E{-11} as being underway, a subwave of declining wave C{-10}, subwave of a larger declining wave C{-9}, which in turn is a subwave of a downward correction, wave 4{-8}.

The chart is buried deep within the 4th wave, and all of the subwaves are nearing their ends.

However, the wave E{-11} label still covers some ambiguity. It’s possible that the preceding movement, rising wave D{-11}, is still underway. A move beyond the CPI-response peak, 6865, lowers the odds that wave E{-11} is in fact underway and increases the odds that D{-11} is still in progress. A move below 6820, the pre-CPI low point, increases the odds that wave E{-11} is indeed underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3;30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures broke sharply lower today, falling from 6992.75 to 6860, then bouncing modestly into the high-6880s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decisive break below 6960 strengthens yesterday’s risk flag: rising wave D{-11} likely ended and a new down leg—wave E{-11}—is probably underway. The current rebound looks like a subwave bounce within the decline, so the near-term count is still somewhat ambiguous, but the directional message is clearer: downward pressure has resumed.

I’ve changed the labelling on the chart and in the waves list to show wave E{-11} as the current wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from a low of 6952.25 into the 6990s, staying below yesterday’s high (7011.50).

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: No change. Rising wave D{-11} continues as a countertrend rally within the broader decline—wave C{-10} within wave 4{-8}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After the morning jobs data was released, the S&P 500 futures ended the drama of the day early in the session, after falling from 7011.50 to 6931. Thereafter, the price went on a slow climb, returning to the 6970s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Unchanged. Wave D{-11} continues to rise.

9:40 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. Half an hour before the opening bell, the S&P 500 E-mini futures jumped on the Employment Situation Report. January unemployment was at 4.3% (down 0.1% from the past month and up 0.3% from the past year). The price reacted in two stages—first a measured climb that took about 25 minutes to push into the 7000s, then a second push that carried into the 7010s as the cash open approached.

What does it mean? Through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, this strengthens the working count that rising wave D{-11} is underway. D{-11} remains a countertrend rally inside falling wave C{-10}, which itself sits inside falling wave C{-9}, all within the larger corrective structure wave 4{-8}. In other words: today’s surge supports “D{-11} up” as a rally within a broader correction—not, by itself, a full trend reversal.

Here are the decision points. The first upside test is the 7027.25 pivot (2/3). A clean break and hold above it keeps D{-11} advancing and reopens the door to the larger confirmation level at 7043 (1/27). Below price, the first “give-back” level is the big round 7000 area; losing that shifts attention to the pre-ramp basing zone in the high 6960s–6970s, and then the morning low near 6953. A decisive rejection under 7027.25 followed by a breakdown back through those supports would fit the “D{-11) tops → C{-10} resumes down” pathway

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work at www.timbovee.com