3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined almost without interruption during the session, reaching a low of 7741.

The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Rising wave D{-5} is underway. Working down through the degrees, from larger to smaller, the following waves are also underway: rising waves C{-6}, 5{-7}, and 1{-8}; and falling waves 2{-9} and C{-10}.

Bottom line: Once wave 2{-9} is complete, more upside lies ahead, with the usual corrections along the way.

Decision Points. But the chart also contains a warning: If wave 2{-9} falls below 7711—not far away—it will violate a rule of Elliott Wave Theory, requiring a reanalysis of the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply when the September inflation numbers were released, dropping from 7879.75 to 7843.25 in the first minute. The decline continued, reaching into the 7820s and returning the price to levels last seen on October 8.

The price of gasoline rose by 9.1% during September, bringing its unadjusted increase over the past year to 34.2%. Overall consumer prices rose by 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the past year.

What does it mean? Despite the drama of the fall, its magnitude is insufficient to force a revision of the chart’s Elliott Wave Theory analysis. Rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

The decline is wave C{-10}, the final subwave of downward correction 2{-9}, four degrees below wave D{-5}.

When the correction is complete, rising wave 3{-9} is expected to begin, carrying the price above the October 6 high, 7897.50, which marked the end of wave 1{-9}.

Decision Points. The inflation report has produced a sharp decline, but no change in the Elliott Wave analysis. The immediate question is where wave 2{-9} will end.

A reversal would provide evidence that rising wave 3{-9} has begun, preserving the expectation of higher prices as wave D{-5} continues. Until that reversal becomes evident, the prudent course is to avoid new bullish positions.

A decline that violates the rules governing the present wave count would require a reassessment of the larger structure.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session low of 7834.50, continuing a decline that began overnight from 7864. The price subsequently recovered into the 7850s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline was part of falling wave C{-10} within wave 2{-9}, a downward correction buried four degrees deep within rising wave D{-5}, which has been underway since March 30 from 6353.25.

The entire structure is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave D{-5} began at the triangle’s lower boundary, which continues to decline as time passes.

When wave D{-5} ends, falling wave E{-5} will begin, completing the five-wave triangle. Under the normal pattern, wave E{-5} would approach or exceed the lower boundary, presently in the 6090s and continuing to fall.

Elliott waves don’t always reach their anticipated destinations. Some fall short, a condition known as truncation. Others travel farther than expected, as wave D{-5} has done in moving above the triangle’s upper boundary.

Decision Points. A decline below the session low of 7834.50 would indicate that the downward correction remains underway. A sustained rise above the October 6 high of 7897.50 would signal renewed upward progress within wave D{-5}.

The more consequential turning point will come when wave D{-5} completes and declining wave E{-5} begins. That transition would substantially change the market outlook.

Wednesday’s inflation report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. New York time, could provide the catalyst for a decisive move in either direction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 7862.25 and then declined to 7836. The price subsequently recovered, exceeding the earlier high to reach 7864, before turning downward again. So far, the net movement has been sideways.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as continuing, despite the lack of directional progress.

Internally, wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, which in turn is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.

At the next degree lower, we find an explanation for why wave D{-5} remains the working count.

Wave 5{-7} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}, which is undergoing a downward correction, wave 2{-9}, that began October 6 from 7897.50.

The correction has developed into a series of smaller waves. One interpretation places the present decline in wave C{-10}, the final downward movement of the correction. Another places it within wave B{-10}, which would leave additional corrective movement ahead.

In either case, before wave D{-5} can end, wave 5{-7} must end. And before that can happen, wave 1{-8} must complete its remaining subwaves: rising wave 3{-9}, corrective wave 4{-9}, and a final rise in wave 5{-9}.

So yes, wave D{-5} is approaching its end. But it still has work to do. As Robert Frost wrote in his 1923 poem, Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening, the wave D{-5} persona might be muttering:

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.”

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the immediate upside reference point. A sustained rise above that level would indicate renewed upward progress within the larger wave structure. Meanwhile, the 7836 overnight low provides a near-term reference for judging whether the downward correction is continuing.

The working count remains rising wave D{-5}. Its eventual completion would open the way for declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of the expanding triangle that began in October 2025.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to zigzag downward during the session, reaching into the 7840s as the closing bell approached. The price remained within Friday’s trading range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within the expanding triangle that began in October 2025, continues within its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. Unchanged from this morning. See below.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What sort of day? Today is an oddity in the stock market calendar. It is a federal holiday — Columbus Day — in the United States, with the bond markets, banks and Federal Reserve closed. And yet, the stock markets are open.

Trading volume tends to be lighter on such days, bid-ask spreads can widen, and volatility can become erratic. These conditions favor caution rather than aggressive trading.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened at 7873 when trading resumed Sunday evening. The price worked its way upward, with the usual zigzags, reaching a high of 7887 before reversing course and falling into the 7850s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues within its third and final subwave, wave C{-6}.

The present decline fits within the second-wave correction underway at degree {-9}, itself part of rising wave 1{-8}. The correction has not invalidated the larger upward wave count.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the principal upside reference. A rise above that level would establish a new high for the current advance and confirm that the upward movement continues.

The overnight low of 7857.75 provides an immediate downside reference. A decline below that level would extend the correction but would not, by itself, establish that wave D{-5} has ended.

The larger question remains whether rising wave D{-5} is approaching completion. A sustained reversal, supported by the developing Elliott wave structure, would shift attention toward falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed their rise shortly after the opening bell, reaching into the 7870s as the session neared its end. The price remained a short distance below the October 6 peak of 7897.50.

Elliott Wave Theory. The present rise is wave B{-10} within wave 2{-9}, a second-wave downward correction. The preceding decline was wave A{-10}. A subsequent falling wave C{-10} would complete the correction.

All of this is happening within rising wave 1{-8}, which is three degrees below rising wave D{-5}, the fourth subwave of the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}.

The immediate question is whether rising wave B{-10} has finished its course. If so, falling wave C{-10} would be next, eventually bringing wave 2{-9} to an end and allowing rising wave 3{-9} to begin.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the principal upside reference. A move above it would require reassessment of the present corrective count, including whether wave B{-10} is forming an expanded flat or whether wave 2{-9} has already ended.

A reversal from below 7897.50, followed by a decline below the low of wave A{-10}, would strengthen the interpretation that falling wave C{-10} is underway.

Neither development would, by itself, establish that the much larger rising wave D{-5} has ended.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7817 to 7853.75, remaining within the range covered the day before. The price subsequently retreated into the 7830s before recovering into the 7840s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as being in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Wave D{-5} is the fourth subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave C{-6} is in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}, an impulse wave that is itself in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}.

Rising wave 1{-8} is in a second-wave downward correction, wave 2{-9}, and will have five subwaves in all when it is complete.

So when does wave D{-5} come to an end? That depends upon the degrees — the sizes — of the waves within it.

The chart shows four degrees below D{-5}. In reality, there are many smaller degrees, too small to be worth counting in this analysis.

When all the subwaves have completed their courses, wave D{-5} will end, and falling wave E{-5} will begin, eventually bringing wave 4{-4} to an end.

With the fourth-wave downward correction complete, Elliott Wave Theory anticipates rising wave 5{-4}, ultimately carrying the price to new highs.

Elliott Wave Theory is truly a complex dance of waves of many degrees.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 marks the end of wave 1{-9}. A rise above that level would indicate that wave 2{-9} has ended and the next upward phase is underway, requiring the smaller-degree count to be reassessed.

A decline below the starting point of wave 1{-9} would invalidate the present count of wave 2{-9}, since a second wave cannot retrace beyond the origin of its first wave. The October 1 low of 7711 remains a larger structural reference for wave 5{-7}.

The immediate question is whether wave 2{-9} has completed its correction, allowing the next upward wave to begin. The larger question remains when wave D{-5} will finish its final rise and give way to falling wave E{-5}.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching a low of 7783 before rebounding into the 7810s and then retreating again.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s analysis remains unchanged. From the lowest degree to the highest, the present decline is wave 2{-9}, within rising wave 1{-8}, within rising wave 5{-7}, within rising wave C{-6}, within rising wave D{-5}, within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

When wave 2{-9} ends, rising wave 3{-9} will follow, then waves 4{-9} and 5{-9}, completing wave 1{-8}. Four additional waves at degree {-8} will follow, ending with rising wave 5{-8}. Its completion will simultaneously mark the ends of wave 5{-7}, wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}.

Falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle, will then begin.

Decision Points. A resumption of the advance would support the interpretation that wave 2{-9} is nearing completion. A move above 7897.50 would provide stronger evidence that the upward structure remains underway. A decline below 7711 would invalidate the present count of rising wave 5{-7} and require reassessment.

9:55 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell further during overnight trading, reaching 7802.75 before recovering some of the loss.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to indicate that rising wave D{-5} and its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, are underway. But how far is wave C{-6} from completion? To explore that question, we turn to a close-up chart showing its internal structure.

These waves are part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October last year and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Unlike a typical zigzag correction, whose A and C waves usually contain five subwaves and whose B wave contains three, an expanding triangle has five major subwaves, labeled A through E, each subdividing into three waves.

Wave D{-5} is now in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. Because C{-6} is a motive wave, it subdivides into five waves, and the close-up chart places it in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.

Within wave 5{-7}, rising wave 1{-8} is still underway. The present decline is provisionally labeled wave 2{-9}, a correction within that rising first wave.

Several steps remain before wave D{-5} can be declared complete. Wave 2{-9} must give way to rising wave 3{-9}, followed by waves 4{-9} and 5{-9}, completing wave 1{-8}. A correction in wave 2{-8} would then follow, before additional rising and corrective waves carry the structure through wave 5{-8}.

The completion of wave 5{-8} would also mark the end of wave 5{-7}, wave C{-6}, and wave D{-5}.

Falling wave E{-5} would then begin. If the expanding triangle develops as expected, wave E{-5} should carry prices toward the triangle’s lower boundary.

Its completion would also end the larger downward correction, wave 4{-4}, setting the stage for rising wave 5{-4}, which would typically be expected to carry prices to new highs.

The conclusion is that wave D{-5} is in its final stages, but several smaller waves remain before its completion can be verified.

Decision Points. The first question is whether the overnight decline remains a correction within rising wave 1{-8}. A resumption of the advance, followed by a move above 7897.50, would strengthen that interpretation.

A decline below 7711, the starting point of wave 5{-7}, would invalidate the present count and require reassessment.

The larger trading opportunity remains the anticipated decline in wave E{-5}. Its beginning has not been verified. Bearish positions would be considered only after the reversal provides sufficient confirmation.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures barely budged after the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released. The price had risen from the 7840s into the 7850s before the release and afterward remained in the upper part of that range, fluctuating sideways.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4} continues and is in its final subwave, wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. The lack of a significant reaction to the FOMC minutes leaves the Elliott Wave count unchanged. A rise above Tuesday’s 7897.50 high would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing to extend upward. A substantial decline that develops a clear impulsive structure would raise the possibility that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight after reaching a peak Tuesday at 7897.50. The decline has so far reached into the 7830s. The price remains within Tuesday’s range, so the decline does not constitute a major reversal at this point.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory shows that rising wave D{-5} continues. It is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, meaning each rising wave travels higher than the one before it, while each falling wave travels lower. The structure gains clarity from boundary lines, shown in blue on the chart, connecting the extremes of the first two rising waves and the first two falling waves.

Decision Points. A rise above Tuesday’s 7897.50 high would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing to extend upward. The overnight decline is not sufficient to signal that D{-5} has ended. A deeper decline that develops a clear impulsive structure would raise the possibility that wave D{-5} is complete and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Chart. The chart shows the entirety of wave D{-5} within 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a new high of 7897.50. They then gave back part of the gain, falling into the 7870s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues, as does its third and final subwave, wave C{-6}. There is no evidence yet that wave D{-5} has ended. A reversal from today’s high would need to develop into a larger and more persistent decline before falling wave E{-5} could be considered underway.

Decision Points. See the morning analysis, below.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began overnight trading by moving sideways, reaching a low of 7829, and then began to rise. The futures reached a high of 7867.75, exceeding the September 22 peak of 7848.50. The price moved a bit higher as the opening bell rang.

What does it mean? Applying Elliott Wave Theory, the new peak resolves the ambiguity that has defined the futures for weeks. Rising wave D{-5} is underway, and that fact is now confirmed. Falling wave E{-5} has not yet begun and lies in the future.

By rising still higher, wave D{-5} continues to trace an unusual path. It is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Normally, the waves of a triangle end in the neighborhood of the upper or lower boundaries, lines drawn through the endpoints of the triangle’s earlier subwaves.

Wave D{-5} rose above the upper boundary in late April and has remained above it ever since, a condition that is not unheard of but is not the norm. With today’s new peak, D{-5} has moved still farther beyond the boundary.

Decision Points. A rise above 7848.50 was the level required to confirm that wave D{-5} remained underway, and the overnight move to 7867.75 has provided that confirmation. The question now is no longer whether D{-5} is still rising, but where it will end and falling wave E{-5} will begin. There is no Elliott Wave signal yet that the turn has occurred.

Chart. The chart shows the entirety of wave 4{-4}, which is in progress

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching 7847.50, a dollar below the peak set on September 22, 7848.50

Elliott Wave Theory. A rise above 7848.50 would verify that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. If the futures reverse before reaching that level, the alternative scenario would remain in play: that wave D{-5} ended at the September 22 peak and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Point. A rise above 7848.50 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. If the futures reverse before reaching that level, a decline below 7810.50 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} ended at the September 22 peak and wave E{-5} has begun. A break below the expanding triangle’s upper boundary, presently in roughly the 7410s, would provide much stronger confirmation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose early in overnight trading, reaching a high of 7793, and then began to fall, reaching a low of 7760.25. The movement was small, barely visible on the daily bars chart.

What does it mean? The movement was too small to affect the Elliott wave count. The primary count remains wave C{-6} within wave D{-5} — both rising waves — within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Coloring the chart with doubt is the lack of confirmation that wave D{-5} remains underway. The most recent high in the expanding triangle, 7848.50 on September 22, has not been exceeded, leaving open the possibility that it marked the end of wave D{-5}. Price has remained below that high ever since.

Nor has the alternative scenario — that the September 22 peak ended wave D{-5} and began falling wave E{-5} — been verified. Price remains within the range of the eight-day rise that carried the futures to the September 22 peak.

The count remains ambiguous.

Decision Points. A rise above 7848.50 would eliminate the September 22 peak as the end of wave D{-5} and strengthen the primary count that D{-5} is still rising. A decisive break below the beginning of the final eight-day rise into that peak would strengthen the alternative count that wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those boundaries gives way, the ambiguity remains.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 7810.25 and then fell to 7754, afterward bouncing somewhat.

Elliott Wave Theory. Unchanged from this morning. There is still no verification that rising wave D{-5} remains underway, or that wave D{-5} ended on September 22 at 7848.50 and falling wave E{-5} began.

The failure of the morning rally to challenge the September 22 high keeps the second scenario very much alive, but the decline has not yet gone far enough to resolve the ambiguity.

Decision Points. A sustained move above 7848.50 would favor continued wave D{-5}. A renewed decline below today’s 7754 low would add weight to the case that wave E{-5} is underway, especially if the decline extends beneath this week’s lower prices.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight until the Employment Situation Report was released an hour before the opening bell. The futures began to rise minutes before the release, and then rose swiftly from 7765.75 to a high of 7802.75. From that point they gave back some of the gain.

The report said nonfarm payroll employment rose by 29,000 in September, far less than August’s revised increase of 133,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%. Emplooyment Situatiion 200261002

What does it mean? The jobs report produced a substantial price gain while our Elliott Wave Theory analysis is trying to distinguish between wave D{-5} still rising and wave E{-5} already falling. A strong enough rise could materially strengthen the D{-5} interpretation; a post-report spike that subsequently fails could instead provide useful evidence for the E{-5} case.

However, compared with the scale of the decline from the September 22 high of 7848.50, the ground covered by traders’ response to the jobs report remains relatively small. The futures have not challenged that high. In judging the chart, I see a bit of drama, but no resolution of the ambiguity as yet.

Decision Points. A sustained rise toward and above 7848.50 would increasingly favor the view that wave D{-5} remains underway. A failure of the jobs-report rally followed by a renewed decline would strengthen the alternative that D{-5} ended September 22 and wave E{-5} has begun. Until price provides one of those signals, the Elliott Wave analysis remains ambiguous.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell until early in the session, when they reached 7672.75, and then rose back into the 7730s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is still ensnared in ambiguity. Was the September 22 high and subsequent decline just a correction within wave D{-5}’s upward march? Or was it the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of wave E{-5}’s downward slide?

The ambiguity comes from a close-up examination of the decline that has followed the September 22 high. The decline is now in its third visible subwave. The larger structure containing those subwaves could be wave A{-6} within wave E{-5}, the first of three subwaves. It could instead be wave A{-7} within wave A{-6}, the first of three or five subwaves at that lower degree. Or the entire decline could be a three-wave downward correction within wave C{-6}, which is a subwave of wave D{-5}.

Given such a wide set of choices at this moment, it is no wonder that the parent-wave labeling is so unclear. This chart illustrates it. If this is all you know about the present chart, what comes next? There is no clarity.

Decision Points. The September 22 high of 7848.50 remains the clearest dividing line. A move above that level would eliminate the interpretation that wave E{-5} began there and would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway. Continued decline from current levels, especially if the present third subwave extends lower and develops a more clearly impulsive structure, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} has begun. Until one of those outcomes develops, the ambiguity remains.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:05 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7719.50 to 7767.75 and then swiftly fell to a low of 7705, thereafter bouncing back into the 7740s.

What does it mean? The futures have been in a shallow downward movement since September 22.

Elliott Wave Theory analysis produces two possible views of the chart. Either rising wave D{-5} is still underway, as it has been since March 30, or wave D{-5} ended on September 22 and falling wave E{-5} began.

Until the chart provides greater clarity, the ambiguity will continue.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave E{-5} is the final wave of the triangle.

The chart marks the boundaries of the triangle with blue lines, based on the early movements of price within the structure. Wave D{-5} shot beyond the upper boundary and remains above it. Wave E{-5} in theory will fall to the lower boundary, although not all waves follow that course. Some come up short, ending before they reach the boundary. Others crash through the boundary, as wave D{-5} did on the upside, moving well beyond it.

Decision Points. The September 22 high of 7848.50 remains the principal reference point. A sustained rise toward and above that level would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} remains underway. Continued movement away from that high, especially if the decline begins to accelerate and develops a clearer Elliott Wave structure, would strengthen the alternative that wave D{-5} ended September 22 and wave E{-5} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com