3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7786.75, then fell to 7757.75. From there they rebounded into the 7770s before turning lower again. The session high remained below Wednesday’s all-time high of 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} is underway, within its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. An alternative interpretation is that both C{-6} and D{-5} ended at the Aug. 5 peak of 7820.25 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. The ambiguity remains because today’s rise stayed below 7820.25. A move above that level would eliminate the Aug. 5-ending alternative and show that D{-5} is still underway.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, remains underway. As long as the price remains below that level, the possibility remains that D{-5} ended there on Aug. 5 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. On the downside, a break below today’s 7757.75 low would strengthen the immediate decline but would not by itself resolve the larger Elliott question. The more important structural level is 7324, the July 29 beginning of rising wave C{-6}; a decline below that level would rule out the present interpretation of C{-6} as still underway.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply for about 10 minutes after the Employment Situation Report was released, reaching 7778.25. The price then fell, so far to the 7750s. The report-triggered rise remained below the all-time high of 7820.25, set Wednesday in the rise that began on March 30.

The report’s findings were mixed, although the employment picture was weaker than the unemployment rate alone suggests. Unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, generally a bullish sign. Non-farm payroll employment fell by 23,000, and payroll gains for the prior two months were revised downward by a combined 103,000. As the chart shows, the market’s response covered relatively little ground.

What does it mean? March 30, in Elliott Wave Theory, is the day wave D{-5} began its rise, and it is still underway. It is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, also underway. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

When D{-5} is complete — it has been involved off and on with quite a bit of ambiguity — it will be followed by falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the 4th-wave correction. A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each succeeding subwave tends to have greater amplitude than the one before it. Wave D{-5} has met that tendency by exceeding the preceding rising wave. If the pattern continues normally, wave E{-5} will fall below the preceding declining wave, although it can fall short of that tendency.

Decision Points. The first upside test is the all-time high at 7820.25. A sustained move above that level would show that rising wave C{-6} remains in force and would extend wave D{-5}. Failure to reach or hold above that level would leave open the possibility that D{-5} is nearing completion. On the downside, this morning’s low at 7725.50 is the first useful near-term marker; a move below it would erase the employment-report advance and suggest that the correction within C{-6} is still underway. A much larger decline would raise the possibility that D{-5} ended at Wednesday’s high and that wave E{-5} has begun, but the chart does not yet provide evidence for making that call.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entirety of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way lower during the session, reaching 7724.25, and then rose back into the 7740s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-6} appears to be undergoing a downward correction that, under the primary analysis, will be followed by a resumption of the rise within wave D{-5}. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a long-running downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

The chart remains sufficiently ambiguous to allow a second interpretation: The August 5 peak at 7820.25 may have marked the end of both wave C{-6} and its parent, rising wave D{-5}, and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, remain underway. A sustained decline below today’s low of 7724.25 would extend the pullback and increase the likelihood that the August 5 peak ended D{-5}, but would not confirm it. A move below 7648.75, the June 15 high and former resistance level, would provide substantially stronger evidence that wave E{-5} has begun. A decline below 7324, the starting point of wave C{-6}, would confirm that C{-6} and D{-5} have ended.9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures, having reached a new high and then fallen sharply the day before, traded sideways overnight within a narrow range, from the 7740s to the 7770s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to analyze rising wave D{-5} as being underway, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, the downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Within D{-5}, wave C{-6} began July 29 from 7324 and is the final major subwave of the rise. As is often the case late in the life of a rising wave, yesterday’s new high introduces fresh ambiguity: Was 7820.25 merely a stopping point within the continuing rise of C{-6}, or did it mark the end of C{-6} and therefore of D{-5}, with declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, now underway?

The chart has not yet answered the question.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway. A fall below the overnight low of 7748 would weaken the immediate uptrend but would not by itself confirm that D{-5} has ended. A sustained move below 7648.75, the June 15 high that the latest rise broke above, would provide stronger evidence of a failed breakout and a possible transition into E{-5}. A decline below 7324 would invalidate C{-6} as still underway and confirm that D{-5} has ended.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the latter stages of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 7820.25 early in the session and then began to fall, reaching a low of 7750.50 before bouncing into the 7760s and 7770s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave C{-6} and its parent, wave D{-5}, remain underway. The decline from the session high may be a correction within wave C{-6}; the chart does not yet show that either wave has ended.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would extend wave C{-6} and keep the advance clearly underway. A fall below 7750.50 would deepen the retreat and provide an additional warning that the rise may have peaked, but it would not by itself confirm the end of wave D{-5}. Stronger evidence would require a sustained decline below the breakout area around 7635, preferably developing an impulsive structure.9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 7771 at the start of overnight trading and as the session approached had reached above 7800.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory is unchanged from the revision put in place on Tuesdasy. Rising wave D{-5} continues and its final subwave, wave C{-6} is underway.

When wave C{-6} is complete, it will also be the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, which may take a month or more to reach completion..

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will compete the parent wave 4{-4} and mark the start of rising wave 5{-4}, which is likely to rise above the star of wave E{-5}, perhaps significantly so.

Decision Points.  A move above the overnight high of 7805.25 would extend wave C{-6} and provide no reason to declare wave D{-5} complete. A reversal below the overnight low of 7771 would be the first warning that the advance may have peaked, although it would not by itself confirm the beginning of wave E{-5}. Stronger evidence would require a sustained decline that develops a clear impulsive structure from the eventual high.

The distinction between warning and confirmation is especially important here. Because C{-6} is the terminal wave of D{-5}, the turn could occur at any time. However, the chart has not turned yet.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the latter stages of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching into the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The extent of the rise beyond the June 15 peak requires that the chart be relabeled, as follows:

• Wave D{-5} is still underway. It did not end on June 15. Wave E{-5} therefore did not begin on that date and remains in the future.
• Wave A{-7} ended on June 11. It is now labeled as the first subwave of wave B{-6}, whose endpoint has moved later, as described below.
• Wave B{-7} ended on June 15. In the earlier version, a series of waves through D{-5} had ended on that date. That interpretation no longer applies.
• Wave C{-7}, and therefore wave B{-6}, ended on July 29. Together, A{-7}, B{-7} and C{-7} form a probable running Flat. The change removes all waves labeled at degree {-8} in the earlier version.
• Wave C{-6} began its rise on July 29 and remains in progress, with no way to know with certainty how high it might fly. It is the final subwave of wave D{-5}. When C{-6} ends, D{-5} will also end and falling wave E{-5} will begin. If E{-5} follows the usual pattern, it will carry the price toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle, currently projected into the 6180s, and most likely below.

And that is the new chart. In retrospect, the old labeling fit the chart as it then appeared, but subsequent price movement proved it wrong. As is so often the case with the ambiguities that accompany Elliott Wave Theory, I do not see how I could have foreseen the way the chart would subsequently play out. That is not an excuse, but an observation.

Decision Points

Wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} remain underway, leaving the upside open and providing no reliable price target. A high price alone will not be evidence that they have ended; confirmation will require a reversal with enough structure to support the beginning of wave E{-5}. Until that happens, the immediate trend remains upward. Once E{-5} is confirmed, the lower boundary of the expanding triangle becomes the principal downside destination, although its projected level will continue to decline as time passes.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, then shot upward shortly before the start of the session. The rise carried the price to 7666, a new all-time high in the advance that began March 30, and after the opening bell the price moved beyond 7670.

What does it mean? The rise may affect the Elliott Wave analysis. The price moved above the prior high of 7648.75 on June 15, which the analysis had interpreted as the peak of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a corrective structure that differs from the usual five-subwave trend and three-subwave correction.

First impact: The new high brings ambiguity back to the chart. It is again possible that wave D{-5} remains underway. That interpretation has not been confirmed, however, and June 15 may still mark the orthodox end of D{-5}, with wave E{-5} underway despite today’s higher high.

Second impact: If wave E{-5} is underway, then A{-8}, B{-8} and the eventual C{-8} may form a Flat correction. B{-8} has moved above the starting point of A{-8}, behavior allowed within an expanded Flat. A downward C{-8} would be required to complete that pattern.

Decision Points.  The character of the next move will help distinguish the alternatives. Continued strong and impulsive upward movement would increase the likelihood that D{-5} never ended on June 15. A sustained reversal from the new high would preserve the interpretation that B{-8} is nearing completion within wave E{-5}, with C{-8} likely to follow to the downside.

For now, the new high creates ambiguity rather than resolving the chart. Both interpretations remain in play.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low of 7542.75 early in the session, then rose as the session progressed to 7635.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave B{-8} continues its rise, within waves A{-7} and A{-6}, both falling subwaves within downtrending wave E{-5}. When wave B{-8} is complete, falling wave C{-8} will begin,

Decision Points. Wave B{-8} remains intact. The session has produced a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows from 7542.75, with no evidence yet that the upward correction has ended.

A sustained break of the latest intraday higher-low structure would provide the first warning that the rise is weakening. A fall below 7542.75 would offer stronger evidence that wave C{-8} is underway. A move below the July 29 low of 7324 would confirm that the larger decline has resumed.

On the upside, the June 15 high of 7648.75 is now close enough to matter. A move through that level would require another look at the internal labeling and degree. Until the market turns, however, wave B{-8} remains in control within the larger downtrend.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 7543.50 early overnight, then worked its way to a high, 7567.75, as the opening bell approached.Afterward it fell to the 7540s

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory considers the rise to be an upward correction within falling wave E{-5}, which is in turn the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a larger downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

I’ve labelled the upward correction as wave B{-8}. The degree of the B wave is at best a guess. As always within a new wave, the size of the initial subwaves is at best a guess. It could well be that B{-8} will turn out to be B{-7} or even B{-6}. See the Reading the Chart section below for an explanation of the degree numbers in curly brackets.

A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each wave travels further than the prior wave in the same direction. The last complete falling wave was wave C{-5}, which ended on March 30 at 6353.25. Wave E{-5}, if it follows the normal course of things, can be expected to fall below that level, ending at the lower boundary, which grows lower each day. In some cases it could end before reaching the boundary, or it might move beyond the boundary, such as happened with wave D{-5}.

In any case, wave E{-5} will likely be underway for a long while — months.

Decision Points. 

The rise from the July 29 low remains intact, with no clear evidence yet that wave B{-8} has ended. A fall below the overnight low of 7543.50 would be the first indication that the immediate advance has stalled, but would not by itself confirm completion of the correction.

A sustained reversal that begins breaking the rising structure from 7324 would provide stronger evidence that wave B{-8} is ending and that the next decline within wave E{-5} is beginning. A move below 7324 would confirm that the downward trend has resumed, although the degree of the developing waves could still require revision.

Until the market produces that reversal, the chart argues for patience. The larger trend is downward, but the upward correction has no clearly established endpoint.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5} on June 15 and the early stages of falling wave E{-5}, both subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-7} Minuscule, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• B{-8} (no name), 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After an early decline, the S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7530s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The initial subwave within falling wave E{-5}, falling wave A{-6}, is working through its smaller subdivisions. Under the present labeling, falling wave A{-8} ended July 29 at 7324, and rising wave B{-8} began. Today’s early decline was a still smaller correction within that rise.

But are the smallest labeled subwaves really of degree {-8}? Or are they one or perhaps two degrees smaller? In considering the question, we must compare them with the waves that came before within the larger wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle that contains everything now visible on the chart.

Wave A{-5} took about a month to complete, B{-5} about two months, C{-5} also about two months, and D{-5} about two and a half months.

Wave E{-5} has been underway for a month and a half and has not yet broken below the upper boundary—the blue line on the chart—of the expanding triangle. Under those circumstances, even degree {-8} may be somewhat too large for the smallest visible subwaves. I have provisionally used {-8} on the chart, but remain open to moving them down one degree, or perhaps two, as the structure develops.

See the “Waves Underway” section below for a list of the ongoing waves, arranged from the largest degree to the smallest, with each wave’s Elliott Wave Theory name and starting date and price.

Decision Points. A rise above 7517.75 would extend wave B{-8}. The June highs at 7632 and 7648.75 remain important overhead reference points, with a move above 7648.75 invalidating the present wave E{-5} count. A renewed decline below 7427.50 would weaken the immediate rise, while a break below 7324 would signal that B{-8} had ended and the larger decline within A{-7} had resumed.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise after yesterday’s session ended, advancing from 7468.25 to 7517.75. As today’s opening bell approached, prices turned lower, falling into the 7470s before beginning another rebound, reaching abover 7500..

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise as an upward correction within falling wave E{-5}, which began June 15 from 7648.75.

Wave E{-5} is still so young that the correction is probably several degrees smaller than its parent wave—perhaps wave B{-7} within wave A{-6}, or a still smaller wave B{-8} within wave A{-7} within wave A{-6}. As always, the degree—size—of the earliest subwaves is somewhat ambiguous but should gain clarity as the structure develops.

Decision Points. A move above 7517.75 would show that the upward correction remains underway. A decline below 7468.25 would provide the first evidence that the correction has ended and the downtrend has resumed. A fall below 7324 would strengthen that conclusion significantly. A rise above 7648.75 would invalidate the present wave E{-5} count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle, and has entered its final subwave, falling wave E{-5}, The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-7} Minuscule, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• B{-8} (no name), 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 31, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7480s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise began from Wednesday’s low at 7324, reached after the market passed through the decision point that resolved a long-running ambiguity: Was rising wave D{-5} still underway, or had falling wave E{-5} begun?

The discussion below and the close-up chart are intended to show precisely how the ambiguity was resolved and how the revised count developed.

When the futures moved below 7357.25, they invalidated the prior labeling of wave C{-7}. Under that count, C{-7} had begun at the June 26 low and therefore could not move beneath that starting point. Once it did, the chart had to be redrawn.

The end of wave D{-5} was reassigned to the June 15 peak at 7648.75. Falling wave E{-5} began at that point.

Since the June peak, E{-5} has alternated between declines and countertrend rises as it has traced the smaller waves within its first major subwave, falling wave A{-6}. See the big-picture chart, updated from this morning’s version.

The June 26 low, formerly labeled as the beginning of wave C{-7}, became a turning point within the first decline from the June 15 peak. It was followed by a rise, another decline ending at Wednesday’s session low, and today’s rebound.

The current rise is a countertrend move within falling wave A{-6}. On the close-up count, it has reached a fifth wave several degrees below A{-6}, suggesting that the advance may be approaching completion.

Falling wave A{-6} will eventually be followed by rising wave B{-6}. After B{-6} ends, falling wave C{-6} should carry wave E{-5} to completion. That will also end its parent, wave 4{-4}, the downward correction that began October 29, 2025.

All of that will take time. As always with Elliott Wave Theory, there will be sharp runs in both directions, along with slow, vibrating stretches that mark the passage of time with little net movement. Through it all, however, the larger trend of wave E{-5} is down.

The D{-5} rise that began March 30 is history.

Decision Points. The immediate question is when the current countertrend rise will end. Because the close-up count places it in a fifth subwave, a reversal could occur at any time. A move above 7501 would allow the rebound to extend and might require adjustment of the smaller-degree labels, but it would not alter the larger E{-5} count. A renewed break below 7357.25 would show that the decline is resuming, and a move below Wednesday’s 7324 low would provide stronger confirmation. The larger E{-5} interpretation would have to be reconsidered only if the futures rose above the June 15 peak at 7648.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:15 p.m., 5-minute bars with volume]

9:38 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 7324 late in yesterday’s session. They then rebounded overnight and after the opening bell, reaching 7415 before slipping back into the 7400s.

What does it mean? The decline invalidated the prior Elliott Wave labeling. Under that count, rising wave C{-7} had begun at the June 26 low, 7357.25. Once the futures moved beneath that starting point, the proposed structure was no longer permissible. The map no longer matched the terrain, and the map had to be redrawn.

After reviewing the subwaves within C{-7} and the waves surrounding it, I concluded that wave C{-7} ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75.

The end of C{-7} also completed its parent, wave C{-6}, which in turn was the final subwave of rising wave D{-5}, the rise that began March 30 at 6353.25.

At the moment wave D{-5} ended, falling wave E{-5} began. The ambiguity that has beset the chart for weeks is over: Wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each successive swing exceeds the preceding swing moving in the same direction. Wave E{-5} is the fifth and final leg of that structure.

Wave E{-5} will contain the usual rises and falls produced by waves of progressively smaller degree. One degree lower, falling wave A{-6} is now underway.

The normal expectation is that wave E{-5} will travel toward the expanding triangle’s lower boundary, shown in blue on the chart. That boundary is presently in the 6190s and slopes slightly lower with the passage of time. A decline from the June 15 peak to today’s boundary would approach 20%, producing what traders would experience as a significant bear market.

The boundary should be treated as a guide rather than an exact target. Wave E{-5} could stop short of the line, or it could briefly overshoot it before reversing. Time will tell which course it follows.

The end of wave E{-5} will also complete wave 4{-4} and begin rising wave 5{-4}. Under the normal Elliott Wave expectation, wave 5{-4} would eventually carry the futures beyond the high at which wave 4{-4} began. The June 15 peak at 7648.75 would be an important waypoint during that rise, rather than its ultimate theoretical objective.

Decision Points. The rebound from 7324 is the immediate test. A break beneath 7324 would show that the decline has resumed and would bring the June 11 low at 7232.25 into view. A break beneath that level would provide stronger evidence that wave A{-6} is progressing downward. On the upside, 7501 is the first nearby obstacle. A move above it would allow the rebound to extend but would not overturn the larger count. The wave E{-5} interpretation remains valid unless the futures rise above 7648.75, which would require the chart to be reconsidered again. The blue boundary in the 6190s remains a long-range destination, not a precise near-term price target.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on falling wave E{-5}, the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. And the wave that came before it, rising wave D{-5}. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 7/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise six minutes before the Federal Open Market Committee announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Elliott Wave Theory. The session low of 7371.75 came within 14.50 points of the starting point of wave C{-7}, 7357.25. The rise accelerated with the FOMC announcement, carrying the price to 7451.50. It then retraced briefly, resumed its rise to 7448, and fell back to nearly 7400.

Had the pre-FOMC decline fallen below 7357.25, it would have broken a firm Elliott Wave Theory rule within the present count: Once rising wave C{-7} began, no internal correction could move below its starting point while C{-7} remained underway.

Such a break would have erased the ambiguity from the chart. The end of wave C{-7} would have been moved to the July 16 truncation high, which would also have marked the ends of waves C{-6} and D{-5}. The revised analysis would have shown falling wave E{-5} beginning on July 16.

But that did not happen, and the ambiguity remains. Is wave D{-5} still underway, or has wave E{-5} begun? Neither scenario has been validated.

Decision Points. The session low of 7371.75 is the immediate downside warning level. A break below it would bring 7357.25 under direct threat. A move below 7357.25 would invalidate the current C{-7} count, verify that D{-5} ended at the July 16 high, and confirm that E{-5} is underway. On the upside, a sustained move above the FOMC-reaction high of 7451.50 would strengthen the near-term recovery but would not, by itself, resolve the larger ambiguity.

Chart. A close-up showing today’s action.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:32 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply after Tuesday’s closing bell, reaching 7501, and then fell to 7438.50. They rebounded into the 7480s before turning lower again as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave 4{-4}, a nine-month-old downward correction, moving through the late stages of the form it has taken, an expanding triangle. The question is whether rising wave D{-5}, the triangle’s next-to-last segment, remains underway, or whether falling wave E{-5}, its final segment, has begun.

When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Until the ambiguity clears from the chart, there is no verified certainty as to which wave—D or E—is presently underway.

Decision Points. Near term, a break above 7501 would reverse the overnight weakness and turn attention back toward the July 16 high at 7632 and the June 15 high at 7648.75. A break below 7438.50 would extend the immediate decline and bring the June 26 low at 7357.25 into view. A sustained move above 7632 would strengthen the D{-5} interpretation, while a decisive break below 7357.25 would materially strengthen the case that E{-5} has begun. Between those levels, the larger structure remains ambiguous.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7485.75 and then retreated into the 7460s, remaining within the boundaries of Monday’s range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning—and from many recent mornings. Rising wave D{-5} appears to remain underway. Alternatively, D{-5} may have ended through a truncation on July 16 at 7632, completing waves C{-7}, C{-6}, and D{-5}, with falling wave E{-5} beginning from that point. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A break above 7485.75 would favor continued short-term strength, while a fall below 7417 would favor renewed weakness. Neither move would resolve the larger ambiguity. A sustained rise above the July 16 high of 7632 would weaken the truncation count, while a rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strongly favor the conclusion that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7357.25 would invalidate the current rising C{-7} count and strongly favor the conclusion that wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures drifted lower after Monday’s closing bell, reaching 7419, and then rose to 7467 as Tuesday’s opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The movement provides little information for Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The ambiguity remains. Either rising wave D{-5} is continuing, or it ended through a truncation on July 16 at 7632, completing waves C{-7}, C{-6}, and D{-5}, and falling wave E{-5} began. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the July 16 high of 7632 would weaken the truncation scenario, while a rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would invalidate it. On the downside, a break below the overnight low of 7419 would indicate renewed short-term weakness, while a fall below 7357.25 would materially strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway, although it would not by itself confirm the larger count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, passing through the range of the overnight opening gap to the upside and moving below Friday’s low.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline opens up the possibility that rising wave C{-7}, which began on June 26 from 7357.25, peaked on July 16 at 7632. If so, it is a small wave whose end would have large implications.

Wave C{-7} is the final subwave within rising wave C{-6}, which began on June 11 from 7232.25. And wave C{-6} is the final subwave within wave D{-5}, a rising wave within wave 4{-4}, a declining structure that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave D{-5} began on March 30 from 6353.25. If wave C{-7} has ended, then wave D{-5} has ended as well, and wave E{-5} is taking its first baby steps in a decline that would be expected to carry the price into the 6250s or lower, perhaps significantly so.

When wave E{-5} ends, it will also mark the completion of wave 4{-4}, which will be followed by a months-long rise in wave 5{-4}.

All of this from a tiny C wave biting the dust. One reason why I’m a fan of Elliott Wave Theory.

The end of wave C{-7} has yet to be verified, of course. The scenario described above is a possibility, not yet a certainty. If verified, however, its implications would be large. The precise timing, as always in Elliott Wave Theory, remains unknown.

Decision Points. A sustained break below Thursday’s 7411.75 low would strengthen the case that the decline from July 16 is not merely another correction within wave C{-7}. The decisive level is 7357.25, the June 26 origin of wave C{-7}. A move below it would verify that wave C{-7} has ended and, by extension, that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} have ended as well, placing falling wave E{-5} underway.

On the upside, a recovery through the 7500 area and today’s 7524.75 high would weaken the immediate bearish case but would not settle the larger question. Only a rise above the July 16 peak at 7632 would eliminate that peak as the end of wave C{-7} and restore the prior rising-wave count.

The following close-up chart of the S&P 500 futures shows nine sessions and the overnight trading in between, illustrating the decline since the July 16 high. The longer-term chart, updated from this morning, is below.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:15 p.m., 15-minute bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading Sunday evening with an upward opening gap of 60.50 points, having closed Friday at 7444 and opened at 7504.50. They thereafter traded sideways within a narrow range. Trading on both Friday and Sunday remained below Thursday’s 7549.50 high.

What does it mean? The gap provides modest support for the working Elliott Wave Theory count, but the absence of follow-through leaves the larger structure unresolved. Under the present count, rising wave C{-7} within rising wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5} continues.

The structure is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Such structures can require considerable time to reach completion.

When wave D{-5} ends, falling wave E{-5} will begin. The triangle’s boundaries—not always precisely honored—have continued to expand. At present, the lower boundary is near 6200, although its level will change with time. Wave E{-5} can be expected to move generally toward that boundary, but it could end above it, at it, or briefly below it. Its completion would also mark the end of wave 4{-4}.

Rising wave 5{-4} would then begin and would be expected eventually to carry the futures to new highs, potentially over a period of many months.

Decision Points. The first near-term test is Thursday’s 7549.50 high. A sustained break above it would strengthen the continuing C{-7} rise, while failure there followed by a return into Friday’s range would leave the market vulnerable to another downswing. The decisive bullish threshold remains the June 15 high at 7648.75. A break below the June 26 low at 7357.25 would seriously weaken the present rising-wave count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com