Market Holiday. U.S. markets will be closed on July 3 in celebration of the American Declaration of Independence from the British Empire on July 4, 1776. Trading will resume on Monday, July 6.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After peaking during the session at 7593.75, the S&P 500 futures fell sharply, reaching 7479.50, the lowest level reached since June 29. After reaching the low, the price rose slightly, fluctuating narrowly around 7500.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price reached a point during the session where there is now a reasonable basis for concluding that falling wave E{-5} may have begun. If verified, that would put an end to the ambiguity that has defined the chart since the June 15 peak, 7648.75, and would define that peak as the end of rising wave D{-5}.

The evidence is not yet final. The decline from today’s high is sharp, but a confirmed wave E{-5} would require follow-through. A lower high followed by a decline below today’s low would strengthen the case. A move below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational verification that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} is underway.

If wave E{-5} has begun, then the final subwave of wave 4{-4} is underway. Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}.

Decision Points. A decline below today’s low, 7479.50, would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} has begun. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger verification that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway.

A rise back above today’s high, 7593.75, would weaken the wave E{-5} interpretation. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would invalidate the conclusion that wave E{-5} has begun and would verify that rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply when the latest employment report was published before the opening bell. Non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, changed little. The initial rise carried the price from the 7550s into the 7570s, but after 15 minutes the advance faltered and gave back much of the report-driven gain.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the rise remained below yesterday’s high during a downward correction within rising wave D{-5}, and remained well below the wave D{-5} peak so far, 7648.75, set on June 15.

The initial extent of the rise added some credence to the conclusion that wave D{-5} is still underway. The sharp pullback from the 7570s, however, preserved the ambiguity that has dominated the chart. An alternative analysis concludes that wave D{-5} ended with the June 15 peak and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Which conclusion will prevail? Impossible to say at this point. A move above yesterday’s high would improve the bullish case. A continued failure from the 7570s, especially if the price falls back through the pre-report area, would keep open the alternative that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}. Until then, the expanding triangle form taken by wave 4{-4} will continue.

Decision Points. A move above yesterday’s high, 7579, would improve the case that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would verify that conclusion.

A continued failure from the 7570s would preserve the ambiguity. A fall back through the pre-report area in the 7550s would weaken the bullish interpretation, and a decline below the overnight low, 7520.25, would strengthen the alternative that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, after falling to 7505.75, rose rapidly to a session high of 7579 and then pulled back into the 7550s. The move produced intraday drama, but it remains a series of relatively small movements that does little to bring certainty to an uncertain chart.

Elliott Wave Theory. The uncertainty still resides in which wave is now underway: rising wave D{-5} or falling wave E{-5}. Each is a subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

In my years as a young trader, I occasionally heard older traders mutter, “The market can’t make up its mind.” I never believed that the market as a whole had a mind, but perhaps it is a reasonable description.

One thing we can bank on: The market will sooner or later “make up its mind,” and that will clarify the chart. When will that happen? No one knows.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would leave rising wave C{-6} continuing within it.

A decline below today’s low, 7505.75, would weaken the near-term rise but would not by itself resolve the larger labeling. Stronger evidence for the alternate analysis would come if the price continues downward toward the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

A break below that upper boundary would be the operational signal that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until the price either rises above 7648.75 or breaks below the triangle boundary, the labeling remains unresolved, with D{-5} still the preferred analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to decline late in yesterday’s session, from 7567.75, and continued falling overnight, reaching a low of 7510.50. The price then rose back into the 7530s and at the opening bell, fell sharply to 7505.75. The ADP employment report, released before the opening bell, showed that private-sector employment rose in June. The sharp decline coincided with a scheduled appearance by the new Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory remains caught between two possible analyses, with neither yet certain.

The more likely labeling is that wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25, is still underway. Less likely, but still possible, is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that downward wave E{-5} is now underway.

Both D{-5} and E{-5} are subwaves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Such a structure has five subwaves. In the present labeling, D{-5} is the next-to-the-last wave, and E{-5} will be the final wave.

When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}, which will carry the price above the highest point achieved by wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would leave wave C{-6} continuing its rise.

A decline below the overnight low, 7510.50, would weaken the near-term rise but would not by itself resolve the larger labeling. The stronger evidence for the alternate analysis would come if the price continues downward toward the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

A break below that upper boundary would be the operational signal that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until the price either rises above 7648.75 or breaks below the triangle boundary, the labeling remains unresolved, with D{-5} still the preferred analysis.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New Yoek time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise during the session, crossing above 7560.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s session peak puts the price fewer than 90 points below the June 15 high, 7648.75, the present peak of the still-labeled wave D{-5}. The rise increases the odds that wave D{-5} remains underway, but it does not verify D{-5}’s status. Verification requires a move above 7648.75.

The alternate count remains that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. That alternate label also remains unverified.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low and the beginning of wave C{-6}, would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those levels is crossed, the chart remains ambiguous, although today’s rise gives the advantage for now to the wave D{-5} interpretation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low early in overnight trading, 7481.75, and then began to rise, reaching a high of 7517.50. From that point, the price reversed and declined rapidly. So far today, the price has remained within a relatively narrow range.

What does it mean? The overnight session does nothing to resolve the Elliott Wave Theory question that has dominated the S&P 500 during the latter half of June: Has rising wave D{-5} reached its end and falling wave E{-5} begun, or is wave D{-5} still underway? There has as yet been no verification that wave D{-5} has ended, and the chart labeling reflects that fact.

The answer matters a great deal. Both waves are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The correction has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each wave moving in one direction is exceeded by the next wave moving in that same direction. The triangle tends to keep getting wider, producing an exaggerated effect.

The triangle will have five subwaves, and falling wave E{-5} will be the last. The previous falling wave in the triangle, wave C{-5}, ended at 6353.25. That means wave E{-5}, if it has begun, is likely to end below that level, perhaps considerably below. Or, as sometimes happens in the markets, it could come up short, a condition known as truncation.

Truncated or not, a decline of that magnitude would be disruptive.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low and the beginning of wave C{-6}, would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those events occurs, the chart remains ambiguous, and both interpretations remain active. [Note: The original version had an error in describing verification that wave E{-5} is underway. The current version has been corrected.]

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New Yoek time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to climb during the session, reaching into the 7500s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The higher the rise, the more likely it becomes that rising wave D{-5} is continuing. The wave that began on March 30 from 6353.25 has so far has reached a peak of 7648.75, on June 15.

The D{-5} peak remains some distance above today’s high. A turn back down before reaching that level would increase the odds that rising wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Points. A continued rise would keep wave D{-5} alive and would shift attention back toward the June 15 high, 7648.75. A rise above that level would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A renewed decline would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} has begun, with operational confirmation coming on a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, so far reaching a daily high of 7473.75. The price remains well below the June 15 peak, 7648.75, the high of the rise that began on March 30.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory counts that rise as wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and which has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Since the June 15 peak, the price has worked its way lower, but not far enough to confirm that wave D{-5} has ended and that the final subwave, declining wave E{-5}, has begun. Nonetheless, that alternative remains a credible possibility.

The charts will retain wave D{-5} as the current wave until its completion is confirmed.

Decision Points. A continued rise would keep wave D{-5} alive and would shift attention back toward the June 15 high, 7648.75. A new high above that level would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway. A renewed decline would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} has begun. A fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide operational confirmation of that count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fluctuated broadly, falling to 7357.25 and then rising to 7459.50 before pulling back again. The daily low was a new low in the decline from the June 15 high, 7648.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. The lower the decline goes, the more likely it becomes that rising wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. That interpretation is increasingly persuasive, but not yet certain.

The alternate count remains possible: The decline could still be a correction within ongoing wave D{-5}. However, each new low weakens that interpretation.

Decision Points. The key downside decision point remains the rising upper boundary of the expanding triangle, which is near the June 11 low, 7232.25. A fall below that level would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway.

Until that break occurs, the label change remains premature, although the evidence is leaning more strongly toward wave E{-5}. On the upside, a rise above 7648.75 would eliminate the wave E{-5} interpretation and confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued falling overnight, reaching the 7350s, and then bounced modestly while remaining well below Thursday’s high.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. As has been the case since the decline began from the June 15 high, 7648.75, there is ambiguity over which subwave within wave 4{-4} is underway. Wave 4{-4} is a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. It is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

The ambiguity has to do with whether the June 15 high was the end of the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, rising wave D{-5}, and therefore the beginning of the final subwave, falling wave E{-5}; or whether the decline is a correction within ongoing wave D{-5}.

The question of the moment is this: How low must the price go to confirm that wave E{-5} is underway? At what decision point do the labels change?

Decision Points. The first decision point is the rising upper boundary of the expanding triangle. A fall below that boundary would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. On the present chart, that boundary is in roughly the same area as the June 11 low, 7232.25. A fall below 7232.25 would make the alternate count — that wave D{-5} remains underway — unlikely.

Until that break occurs, the decline remains ambiguous. The deeper the decline goes, the more the evidence favors wave E{-5}; but the labels need not change until the price breaks the triangle boundary. On the upside, a rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would eliminate the E{-5} interpretation and confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply after the opening bell, reaching a daily low of 7390.50, and then rose back into the middle range of the day’s decline.

Elliott Wave Theory sees the chart since the June 15 peak, 7648.75, as uncertain, although today’s decline gives more weight to the bearish interpretation. The decline may be a downward correction within rising wave D{-5}, in which case the price will reverse and rise above the June 15 peak. Or the June 15 peak may have marked the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, in which case the price will continue to fall toward the lower boundary of the parent wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

That lower boundary will be near 6200 in late July. In expanding triangles, boundaries formed by connecting earlier turning points often become turning areas for later waves, although the price can turn before reaching the boundary or can break beyond it.

One way to think of the chart is this: the price may still rise enough to continue wave D{-5}, but once wave D{-5} is complete, wave E{-5} will carry the price substantially lower before wave 4{-4} ends.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway. A decline below the June 11 low, 7232.25, would confirm that wave E{-5} has begun. A fall below today’s low, 7390.50, would not by itself confirm wave E{-5}, but it would increase the likelihood that the June 15 peak was the end of wave D{-5}. Between those levels, the chart remains unresolved.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to a daily low of 7452.25 and then rose, reaching a daily high of 7496. The price remains within the range that has contained trading since the June 11 low and the June 15 high.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied to the chart, shows little certainty about the present wave structure. Today’s rise, so far, is too small to resolve the ambiguity. The broader fact remains that the price has moved sideways-to-lower since the June 15 high, but without a decline large enough to confirm that wave D{-5} has ended.

The price remains between the June 15 high, 7648.75, and the June 11 low, 7232.25. Until one of those levels is broken, the count remains unresolved: rising wave D{-5} may still be underway, or falling wave E{-5} may have begun from the June 15 high.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway. A decline below 7232.25 would confirm that wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, has begun. Between those levels, the chart calls for patience rather than prediction.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose during the session to 7496.50 and then fell rapidly to 7407.75, breaking below the overnight low. The price then bounced partway back into the 7440s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The count remains unchanged from this morning’s analysis. Rising wave D{-5} continues, unless it ended on June 15 at 7648.75. In that case, declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, is underway.

The sharp intraday decline strengthens the case for caution but does not by itself confirm wave E{-5}. Confirmation still requires a break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle that defines wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7496.50, would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest that the decline remains only a smaller correction within wave D{-5}. A rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway. A decline below 7407.75 would keep pressure on the downside, and a break below the triangle’s upper boundary would provide stronger evidence that wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures spent the overnight hours drifting sideways in a range that was narrow relative both to Tuesday’s decline and to the larger wave now under review. The overnight low was 7420.25, and the overnight high, so far, was 7467.25. The slowing suggests a pause rather than an accelerating collapse.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory leaves the count unresolved. Rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, most likely remains underway. However, wave D{-5} may have ended on June 15 at 7648.75, in which case declining wave E{-5}, the triangle’s final subwave, has begun.

Both wave D{-5} and wave E{-5} are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October. Because the decline from 7648.75 has not yet broken the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, the E{-5} interpretation remains possible but unverified.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway and would extend the D wave. A decline below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those events occurs, the market remains in the same ambiguous zone that has governed the past several sessions.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to 7415.25 early in the session, then rose into the 7490s before giving back much of the rebound.

Elliott Wave Theory. The working count remains that rising wave D{-5} is still underway, probably. Today’s low remains well above the June 11 start of wave C{-6}, 7232.25, so the chart has not yet invalidated the possibility that wave C{-6}, the final subwave of wave D{-5}, is still developing.

The alternate count is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of wave 4{-4}, has begun. If that count is correct, then wave E{-5} is likely to fall to the 6230s or below before ending wave 4{-4}. Uptrending wave 5{-4} would then begin and ultimately rise to new highs.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would mean that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} are still rising.

A fall below 7232.25, the June 11 start of wave C{-6}, would be strong evidence that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway.

A fall below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would confirm that wave E{-5} has begun.

A fall below today’s low, 7415.25, would not confirm the larger count, but it would extend the decline from June 15 and increase the likelihood that wave E{-5} is already underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply overnight, dropping from the 7540s to the 7410s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave rule now in play is this: The deeper the decline, the more likely it becomes that rising wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and declining wave E{-5} has begun. That interpretation has not yet been confirmed.

The alternate count is that wave D{-5} is still underway, with wave C{-6} continuing to develop as a volatile rising wave. Tuesday’s overnight decline weakens that case but does not eliminate it.

Decision Points. A fall below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would confirm that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5}, the final wave of wave 4{-4}, is underway.

A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would mean wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} are still rising.

A fall below the June 11 low, 7232.25, would be strong evidence that wave E{-5} has begun, although the triangle-boundary break remains the cleaner confirmation point.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New Yoek time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose overnight and during the session, reaching 7599.25, and then fell back into the 7520s, giving back nearly all of the day’s gain. The price remained within last Thursday’s range, meaning there was no progress in either direction.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-6}, the final subwave of wave D{-5}, continues. Both are rising waves.

The decline from the day’s high does not change the count. The price has not moved above the June 15 high, 7648.75, which would extend wave C{-6}, and it has not fallen below a level that would suggest wave D{-5} has ended.

Decision Points. A rise above 7599.25, today’s high so far, would show that the intraday pullback has ended. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would extend wave C{-6} and keep wave D{-5} in force.

A fall below 7513, today’s low, would show a deeper pullback within wave C{-6}. It would not, by itself, change the count.

The present count would require serious reconsideration only if the price develops a structure showing that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. The broader confirmation would come from a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 7513 in the second hour after trading resumed Sunday evening, then recovered into the 7580s.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, it’s clear that rising wave D{-5} continues and is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. When wave D{-5} is complete, downward wave E{-5} will begin, with three subwaves. When the final subwave of wave E{-5} is complete, it will mark the end of wave E{-5} and of its parent, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle. Wave D{-5} began on March 30 from 6353.25. Within wave D{-5}, wave A{-6} ended June 2 at 7632.25, wave B{-6} ended June 11 at 7232.25, and wave C{-6} is now underway. The high so far within wave C{-6} is 7648.75, reached June 15.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would extend wave C{-6} and keep wave D{-5} in force.

A fall below 7513, the low after Sunday evening’s reopening, would show only a deeper pullback within wave C{-6}. It would not, by itself, change the count.

The present count would require serious reconsideration only if the price develops a structure showing that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. The broader confirmation would come from a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

The Chart. I’ve changed the chart to the candlestick format. By using colors — green for rising bars and red for falling bars — the candlesticks make it easier to see subwaves. I’m also changing the bar size to something meaningful: daily bars, which improve the link between chart time and the daily cycle in the markets. Finally, the boundaries of the expanding triangle that has been underway since last year have been colored blue, the better to distinguish them from the candlesticks.

Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Juneteenth, a holiday celebrating the end of slavery. Trading of the S&P 500 futures will resume Sunday evening.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded narrowly in the 7530s to the 7570s, remaining below the session high, 7581.50. The peak in the rise that began on March 30 remains at 7648.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise from March 30 is wave D{-5}, which is still underway.

Decision Points. The nearest upper decision point is the session high, 7581.50. A move above that level would extend the day’s rise but would not change the larger count. The larger upper decision point remains 7648.75; a move above that level would extend wave D{-5}.

The major lower decision point remains the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. A break below that boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 7504.25 into the 7560s overnight, reaching a high of 7568.25. The futures then fluctuated mostly within the 7530s to 7560s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues. It began on March 30 and is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each rising subwave ends higher than the prior rising subwave, and each falling subwave ends lower than the prior falling subwave. It makes for a wave that covers a lot of territory, increasing in size as it progresses.

Decision Points. The immediate upper decision point is 7568.25. A move above that level would extend the overnight rise and increase the odds of a renewed challenge to the June 15 high of 7648.75. A move above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5}.

The immediate lower decision point is 7504.25. A fall below that level would end the overnight rise and return attention to the pullback from 7648.75. The larger lower decision point remains the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. A break below that boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com