3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 6718.75 during the session, and then began to rise. So far it has reached into the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The low point in today’s session either marks the end of wave 3{-7} or the end of wave 1{-8} within wave 3{-7}. It’s not yet possible to say for sure which has occured. The rise that followed is either the beginning of wave 4{-7} or the start of wave 2{-8} within wave 3{-7}. The entire structured is within downtrending wave 5{-6}, which has been underway since February 25.

Right now price is roughly testing the former breakdown area around 6830–6850. If this rally stalls below that zone, the interpretation tilts toward a smaller-degree correction (2{-8}). If price continues higher and begins to overlap deeper into prior structure, the odds increase that 3{-7} has completed and 4{-7} is underway.

The downtrend remains intact, but the first meaningful counter-move has appeared. Likelihood still favors further downside while price remains below the breakdown zone, but certainty now depends on whether this rally can sustain itself beyond former support turned resistance.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall after yesterday’s closing bell, carrying price from about 6885 down to a low so far of 6742.75. Price then bounced, retracing toward 6800.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to support a downtrending wave 5{-6}. Today’s decline appears to be the strong middle leg of that move—declining wave 3 of one degree or another.

Degree note. There is still ambiguity about whether today’s selloff is labeled 3{-7} (one degree below 5{-6}) or a smaller-degree 3{-8} within 1{-7}. For now, that ambiguity does not change the trading read: the tape remains bearish until price proves otherwise.

Decision points. The downtrend remains intact while price holds below 6800 and especially below 6886. Holding above 6742.75 favors a near-term corrective bounce; breaking below 6742.75 favors continued downside extension.

The decline remains in force unless and until price can reclaim and hold above 6800. A break below 6742.75 would argue that the heart of the selloff is still unfolding. Two lenses, one chart: likelihood favors continued downside pressure, certainty lies at the reclaim of resistance.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 ;.m., 20-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise overnight, reversing the earlier downward opening gap and subsequent decline. The rally continued throughout the session, reaching into the 6910s and then pulling back, so far into the 6870s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline from the February 25 high at 6983.75 is counted as the beginning of downtrending wave 5{-6}. The low at 6758.50 appears to mark the end of the first subwave within that decline, wave 1{-7}. The subsequent rise from that low is most likely the second subwave, a corrective wave 2{-7}.

It is also possible that wave 1{-7} is still unfolding, and that the fluctuations now visible represent lower-degree waves 1{-8} and 2{-8} within it. As always in real time, there is some degree of uncertainty regarding wave degree.

The day’s rally does not require a new map. It reflects the uncovering of additional internal detail within the existing structure — a routine occurrence in Elliott Wave analysis.

Second waves often retrace deeply and can approach the origin of the first wave without altering the larger trend.

Decision levels:

6758.50 (today’s low): A break below would resume the decline and raise the probability that a third wave down is underway.

6900–6907 (today’s high zone): Sustained trade above this area would extend the retracement and increase pressure on short positions.

6983.75 (February 25 high): A move above this level would seriously challenge the 5{-6} down interpretation.

6875 (Friday’s close): A useful line in the sand for whether the rally is holding into the close and potentially into the next session.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened with a gap when trading resumed overnight. The U.S. was at peace when Friday trading ended at 6875.25. The nation was at war with Iran when trading reopened Sunday at 6820. Prices continued to decline overnight, reaching a low so far of 6768.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory treats the decline that began in late December as proof that the prior count no longer matches the chart.

In the revised map, the rise into February 25 completed wave 5{-8}. That high also completed the two larger-degree waves that encompassed it: wave C{-7} and wave 4{-6}. From there, downtrending wave 5{-6} began and has continued lower.

The tip-off came when what had been labeled wave 4{-9} (as a subwave within 5{-8} under the prior count) fell below the start of wave 1{-9}. That overlap should not occur in an impulse. When it does appear to occur, the conclusion is simple: the count is wrong, and the map must be redrawn to match the terrain.

The chart below shows the revised wave map.

If downtrending wave 5{-6} completes as expected, it would also complete a larger sequence that includes parent wave 1{-5}, which began on October 8, 2025—within a still larger chain of first waves that traces back many decades. (See my October 12, 2025 essay, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’,” for how that larger structure developed.)

Here are the decision points, as prepared by the AI ChatGPT:

• 6857 (today’s intraday high)
  Reclaiming and holding above 6857 shifts “what’s happening now” from free-fall to a short-covering / corrective bounce. It does not disprove 5{-6} down, but it would argue for a larger corrective wave before the next leg.
• 6820 (Sunday reopen / gap reference)
  Trading below 6820 keeps the gap-and-go downside pressure intact. Trading back above 6820 reduces immediate downside urgency and supports the bounce case.
• 6768.50 (today’s low so far)
  Break below 6768.50 resumes the decline and puts the market back into impulsive-trend behavior intraday.
• 6751.50 (Feb 5 swing low on the 75m chart)
  This is the next “structural” downside trigger. A clean break below 6751.50 would strengthen the case that 5{-6} is extending and that the market is not simply chopping inside the February range.
• 6790–6800 (near-term pivot zone)
  This is the “tell” area during the session: holding above it supports stabilization; losing it tends to reopen the path to 6768.50 and then 6751.50.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 2{-7} Minuscule, 3/2/2026, 6758.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose into the 6880s after the session began and then fell back into the 6850s as the closing bell approached. Trading has remained choppy and overlapping throughout the afternoon.

Elliott Wave Theory. Uptrending wave 5{-8} continues and appears to be working through a downward corrective subwave. The absence of sustained directional follow-through supports the view that the decline remains corrective rather than impulsive.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight peak of 6915.50 and then declined, so far reaching into the 6850s. Following the release of the January Producer Price Index an hour before the opening bell, price rebounded modestly into the 6860s. The session has so far been defined by an initial selloff, a reaction to the data, and continued overlapping movement.

What does it mean? From an Elliott Wave Theory perspective, the decline appears corrective in nature. The preferred interpretation is that it represents a 4th subwave within uptrending wave 5{-8}, which began on February 17 from 6791.

The open question is the degree of that corrective wave. On the chart it is labeled as wave 4{-9}, one degree below wave 5{-8}. However, it could alternatively be unfolding two degrees lower, as wave 4{-10} within wave 1{-9}, or possibly at an additional lower degree. At this stage, price structure does not allow a confident determination of which degree is correct. What is visible is overlapping, choppy movement typical of a 4th-wave interruption rather than the start of a new impulsive decline.

Decision points. As long as price holds above the February 17 low at 6791, the working assumption remains that wave 5{-8} is in progress and that the present decline is corrective. A sustained move below 6791 would invalidate that interpretation and strongly suggest that the rise since February 17 was itself a subwave within a larger downward correction, likely wave 4{-8}. On the upside, a decisive move above 6915.50 would strengthen the case that the 4th wave has ended and that the next advancing subwave within wave 5{-8} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 5{-8} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)
  • 1{-9} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell from its overnight peak, 6970.75, by 100 points, reaching 6870.75 during the session. As the session progressed, the futures partially recovered from the loss, rising into the 6920s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rising 3rd subwave within uptrending wave 5{-8} continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 6970.75 as overnight trading came to an end, and then fell sharply into the 6940s.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory analysis is applied, it is clear that uptrending wave 5{-8} continues. Which subwave is it in?

That’s problematic. The preceding rising wave, wave 3{-8}, lasted for only 11 days. When I take that fact into account, it seems likely that wave 5{-8} is in its 3rd subwave. If wave 5{-8} is of similar size to wave 3{-8}, and there is no guarantee that it will be, then it will end roughly around the 11th day since it began on February 17. That would be on February 28, more or less. Fifth waves are the most likely to truncate or extend, however, and it won’t be surprising if wave 5{-8} continues after that date, or ends before it, in either case by a large margin.

The uptrend remains intact as long as price holds above the February 17 low (6791); in the near term, a break back below the prior 2{-9} low area would argue that the current push is not the heart of 3{-9} and that 5{-8} is still basing.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 5{-8} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)
  • 1{-9} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6960s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Uptrending wave 5{-8} continues. It remains below the peak of the previous 3rd wave of the same degree, 7036.25. A 5th wave can usually be expected to move beyond that peak. Sometimes it falls short, an action known as “truncation”. Sometimes it moves a ridiculous distance beyond, called “extension”. There’s no way to tell which of the three paths this 5th wave will follow.

For now, the uptrend remains intact as long as price continues to hold above the February 17 low. If price were to reverse sharply and tumble, it would imply that the present rise was a subwave of the declining wave 4{-8}, and that wave 5{-8} has not yet begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 6892.75 overnight and then began to rise, reaching the 6940s shortly after the opening opening bell sounded.

With no scheduled economic reports and no market-moving surprises from last night’s State of the Union, today’s risk skews political rather than economic. Absent unexpected legal or policy headlines, price action should be governed by internal market structure rather than news flow.

What does it mean? Big changes, made clear by events. Which is how Elliott Wave Theory analysis works.

First, I’ve changed the labeling system of waves of the {-11} degree. Wave E{-11} has become wave 5{-11}, in line with the classical Frost and Prechter book Elliott Wave Principle, which notes that the subwaves of wave C often unfold as an impulse, and are therefore numbered.

Second, it has become clear that wave 5{-11} (formerly E{-11}) ended on February 17 at 6791. The reversal from that point also ended a series of parent waves: C{-10}, C{-9} and the downward correction 4{-8}.

Now underway is wave 5{-8}, likely in its first wave one or several degrees below {-8}. In non-Elliott-Wave terminology, the market had turned bullish for awhile.

This configuration is consistent with late-stage corrective behavior, characterized by overlapping price action and limited directional conviction.

Now, a reality check. The beginning of wave 5{-8} has not yet been robustly verified. The price could still reverse to the downside, and if it goes below the February 17 low point of 6791, then the analysis no longer matches the reality of the chart, wave 4{-11} is still underway, as is wave 4{-8}, and the chart will be revised to match the lay of land.

Here are the decision points.

• 6791 — This is a critical invalidation level.
  A move below this level negates the bullish interpretation and restores the larger corrective count.
• Holding above the 6900–6920 zone — Near-term confirmation bias.
  Continued acceptance above this area supports the view that a new impulse is developing at lower degrees.
• Upside progress with overlapping structure — Proceed with caution.
  Until price action becomes more impulsive and less corrective, confidence should remain provisional.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 5{-8} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)
  • 1{-9} (none), 2/17/2026, 6791 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low point early in the session and then began to rise, picking up the pace as the consumer confidence data was released.

Elliott Wave Theory: The magnitude of the rise suggests that downtrending wave E{-11} may have ended. It is a subwave buried several degrees deep within a broader downward correction, wave 4{-8}. If E{-11} has indeed ended, that would also mark the completion of its parent wave C{-10}, and one degree higher, wave C{-9}. In turn, that would imply the end of wave 4{-8} and the beginning of uptrending wave 5{-8}, a potentially significant reversal.

That said, the end of E{-11} has not yet been confirmed. This remains a “maybe,” not a done deal. A key question within the analysis is this: If E{-11} has ended, what was the date and price of that end?

I have placed date and price labels on two possible candidates: February 17 at 6791, and today, February 24, at 6828.50. The earlier date appears to mark the end of a clear five-wave decline. The later date is distinguished by the energy of the subsequent rise, especially when compared with the more halting advance that followed the earlier low.

I personally lean toward the earlier date as the endpoint, if wave E{-11} has truly ended. A colleague favors the later date as the terminal point.

As always, the chart will sort this out, as it always does.This is one of the reasons Elliott Wave Theory is so much fun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 6875 and then fell back into the 6840s, continuing the decline that began late yesterday.

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the chart indicates that the fourth-wave downward correction, wave 4{-8}, remains in progress. Internally, the structure continues to resolve as a nested corrective sequence: wave E{-11} within wave C{-10} within wave C{-9}.

This configuration is consistent with late-stage corrective behavior, characterized by overlapping price action and limited directional conviction.

Decision Points

By the AI ChatGPT-5.2

Acceptance above the overnight high (~6875)
→ increases odds that wave E{-11} is complete and wave 5{-8} is starting.

Sustained trade below the overnight low (~6840)
→ signals E{-11} extension; stand down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 pm., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit the day’s peak early in the session, 6930.25, and then went into a near-constant fall. In the 6830s it bounced into the 6860s, fell again and bounced. It is now repeating the test.

Elliott Wave Theory: No change from this morning. Wave E{-11} continues its decline.

Decision points. Also no change. See the section below in this morning’s analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures bided its time when trading resumed overnight, fluctuating between the 6920s and the 6860s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that a falling series of subwaves within a declining 4th-wave correction, within a subwave of a rising 4th-wave correction, are underway.

From the smaller degree to the larger, the waves are E{-11}, C{-10}, C{-9}, 4{-8}, C{-7} within wave 4{-6}.

Wave E{-11} began on February 11 from 7011.50. What happens when it ends?

Wave E{-11} is the final subwave of wave C{-10}, which is also a final wave. As is not uncommon in Elliott Wave Theory, the end of a final wave triggers a series of larger final waves, in this case up to wave 4{-8}, which began on January 13 from 7036.25. Rising wave 5{-8} will begin, eventually carrying its parent, wave C{-7}, to completion.

Decision points

,By the AI ChatGPT 

• Primary posture: Neutral / wait-and-watch.
  The market remains range-bound and directionless at the smallest degree, consistent with an ongoing wave E{-11} finalization. No action is required while price continues to fluctuate sideways within the established overnight range.
• Key structural event to monitor: The completion of wave E{-11}.
  When wave E{-11} ends, it should trigger the completion of its parent wave C{-10}, which in turn sets off a cascading completion of larger-degree corrective waves up through wave 4{-8}. This sequence would mark a structural inflection point, not necessarily an immediate directional surge.
• Upside implication (conditional):
  Confirmation of wave E{-11} completion would imply the start of rising wave 5{-8}, beginning the final advance within wave C{-7}. Any upside move should be evaluated first for impulse characteristics (range expansion, follow-through), rather than assumed continuation.
• Downside risk:
  A decisive break below the recent overnight lows would suggest that wave E{-11} is extending or morphing, delaying the anticipated resolution. In that case, expectations for a near-term transition to wave 5{-8} would be deferred.
• Headline risk overlay:
  Given the elevated uncertainty surrounding tariff-related political developments, any sudden price movement should be treated as headline-driven until proven otherwise. Structural confirmation, not speed, will determine whether a move is actionable.
• Action bias:
  No new directional commitments until wave E{-11} clearly completes and the market demonstrates acceptance of a new directional phase.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. Today’s market was like a basketball in the hands of a very tall player.

First, two economic reports—the GDP production metric and the PCE price metric—came in worse than expected. Bam! The player slammed the ball to the court floor. That’s how prices fell.

A few hours later, the Supreme Court issued an opinion ruling against the legality of many tariffs imposed by President Trump during his current second term. The player grabbed the basketball on the bounce, aimed, and neatly slid it through the basket to score. That’s how prices rose after the Court’s ruling.

The S&P 500 futures reached a session low of 6847.25 in response to the GDP and PCE reports. As the Court released its decision a bit more than half an hour after the opening bell, prices rose rapidly into the 6920s, whipsawed energetically, and then reached a high of 6931.50, before settling back into the 6910s.

Elliott Wave Theory? No change. Wave E{-11} continues its downward march.

Decision points.

• 6900: Balance line. Continued overlap here favors consolidation within E{-11}.
• Below ~6875: Downside pressure likely resumes.
• Above ~6935 with follow-through: Would suggest E{-11} is ending and a counter-trend bounce is attempting to assert itself.
• Bias: Corrective volatility continues until price resolves away from the balance zone.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked overight at 6904.75 and then began to fall, reaching into the 6840s after economic reports showed Gross Domestic Product increasing less than expected and Personal Consumption Expenditures increasing more than expected.

What does it mean? The decline leaves the current Elliott Wave Theory analysis unchanged. It describes a series of falling subwaves — E{-11} within C{-10] within C{-9} — within a downward correction, wave 4{-8}, that began on January 13.

Decision points. 

• 6850–6845: Near-term support. Holding here keeps the decline consistent with an ongoing E{-11} subwave.
• Below ~6840: Increases the likelihood that E{-11} is extending, with risk shifting toward lower support within wave 4{-8}.
• Reclaim and hold above 6885: Suggests E{-11} may be ending, allowing for a counter-trend bounce inside the correction.
• Bias: Downside favored unless prior support is reclaimed with follow-through.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 80-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to drift lower during the session, reaching the mid-6840s and pressing into the lower end of the morning’s decision zone.

Elliott Wave Theory: This price action remains consistent with a counter-trend decline within wave E{-11}, and no revision to the broader Elliott Wave interpretation is warranted at this time.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly overnight, to 6912.50, and then fell sharply into the 6860s. The low point came shortly after release of economics reports, Initial Jobless Claims and U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as a counter-trend correction within a larger decline, part of falling wave E{-11}. That E wave is part of a large dclining wave C{-10}, which in turn is part of a still larger deline, wave C{-9}.

The whole structure is part of declining wave 4{-8}, a downward correction that began on January 13 from 7036.25.

Decision points. Near-term downside reference (6860–6850 zone).
The overnight selloff carried the S&P 500 E-mini futures into the 6860s, with an intraday low near 6862 on the 5-minute chart. This zone now serves as the first decision point.

• Hold above 6850–6860: favors continued sideways-to-down consolidation within wave E{-11}, allowing for brief counter-trend rebounds.
• Sustained break below 6850: increases the odds that wave E{-11} is extending lower, opening the door to a test of the early-February lows.

Overhead resistance (6900–6915).
The overnight high at 6912.50 defines the nearest resistance band.

• Failure below 6915: keeps the decline intact and supports the interpretation of the overnight rise as a corrective bounce.
• Recovery and hold above 6915: would argue for a more complex correction, but would still be counter-trend unless followed by acceptance above 6950.

Structural invalidation level (6950–6970).
A sustained move back above the 6950–6970 region would begin to challenge the labeling of the decline as an active wave E{-11} within C{-10}.

• Until that occurs, the dominant bias remains lower within the broader wave 4{-8} correction.

Larger-degree context.
As long as price remains well below the January 27 high at 7043, the larger bearish structure — declining C{-9} within 4{-8} — remains intact. Any rallies should be treated as corrective unless proven otherwise by structure and follow-through.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 70-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rosse to 6925.75 during the session and then retreated, so far reaching the 6870s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis is unchanged. Wave E{-10] within wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} continue.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 6848.75 early in overnight trading and then began to rise, reaching 6904 before retreating to the 6870s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that the decline that began on January 13 from 7036.25 continues. It is a 4th-wave downward correction, wave 4{-8} on the chart, and is in its third subwave, wave C{-9}.

The C wave of a correction usually has five subwaves. Wave C{-9} is in its third subwave, wave C{-10}, which when complete will be followed by waves D{-10} and E{-10}.

Wave C{-10} is in its final subwave, wave E{-11}, which when complete will mark the end of wave C{-10} and the beginning of wave D{-10}.

Bottom line: The downward correction, wave 4{-8} has a while to go before it is done, casting a downward shadow on the S&P 500.

Decision points.

Bearish continuation favored while below:

• 6904 — today’s intraday high on the 5-minute chart
• 7011.50 — labeled D{-11} high (2/11) on the 55-minute chart

A break and hold above 7011.50 would:

• Weaken the active C{-9}/C{-10}/E{-11} down-structure
• Raise probability that a higher-degree corrective leg is already underway.

Downside confirmation levels:

• 6848.75 — overnight low (corrected value)
• Sustained trade below that level strengthens the case that:
  • Wave E{-11} is extending
  • Wave C{-10} is not yet complete.

The pattern implication levels:Any decisive break below the 6751.50 C{-11} low (2/5) would confirm the larger corrective structure still unfolding, and strongly support the wave 4{-8} has a while to go conclusion.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com