9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened with a significant downward gap. They closed on Friday at 6863.75, and when trading resumed Monday evening, fell in the first five minutes to an overnight low of 6770. They then retraced a portion of the decline, returning to the 6830s and 6840s as the opening bell sounded.

The move comes against a backdrop of failed U.S.-Iran negotiations and an announced U.S. plan to impose a blockade affecting Iranian oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis interprets the fall and subsequent rise as a rapid repricing of risk rather than a confirmed shift in trend. The rebound has not moved beyond the previous peak within wave B{-6}, the rise that began on March 30. It remains a counter-trend subwave within the larger downward corrective wave C{-5}, itself part of the broader wave 4{-4} correction.

After confirmation that no agreement had been reached, oil prices rose by 9% to $104 per barrel before easing back to $101. The decline and partial recovery in S&P 500 futures coincided with these fluctuations in oil prices.

Decision Points. The immediate test lies between the overnight low at 6770 and the retracement zone in the 6820s–6830s. A sustained move above that upper band would suggest the counter-trend rally within B{-6} is extending, delaying confirmation of the larger C{-5} decline. Conversely, a break back below 6770 would strengthen the case that wave C{-5} is underway, with lower levels likely to follow. Until one of those boundaries gives way, the market remains in a repricing range rather than a confirmed directional move.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 p.m., 20-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after the opening bell to a session high of 6888, then reversed sharply. The decline has now carried below the overnight low, reaching the mid-6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory’s principal analysis has been that rising wave B{-6} was continuing. This morning’s decline introduces the first meaningful challenge to that view, as the move lower is both impulsive in character and breaks prior short-term support.

At this stage, the decline can be interpreted in two ways. It may mark the beginning of declining wave C{-6}, which would be expected to unfold with sustained downside momentum. Alternatively, it may represent a deeper pullback within the still-active B{-6} rally.

The distinction has not yet been resolved. A single break of support, while significant, is not sufficient on its own to confirm a trend change. Confirmation would require a failed bounce followed by a lower high and continued downside movement.

Decision Points. A recovery back above the 6875–6888 zone would favor the view that rising wave B{-6} remains in force. Conversely, a bounce that stalls below that zone and turns lower would strengthen the case that declining wave C{-6} is underway.

Until one of these conditions is met, the chart remains in transition and the analysis unchanged.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 6874 to 6888 in the five minutes that began with the release of the Consumer Price Index and immediately fell back to the 6870s where it had begun. The CPI reported that prices in general rose 0.9% in March, compared to 0.3% in February. Energy prices rose by 10.9%, and gasoline prices by 21.2%.

What does it mean? The rise was cut short and so was any decline, which tells Elliott Wave Theory that rising wave B{-6} continues, but without a lot of directional energy.

Decision Points. The immediate resistance zone remains the CPI spike high at 6888; a sustained move above that level would support further extension of wave B{-6}. On the downside, support lies in the 6840–6850 range, which has contained the post-release pullback; a break below that zone would signal that the upward correction is weakening. A decline through 6780 would shift the balance toward the start of declining wave C{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 115-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching 6876, before pulling back into the mid-6840s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues.

Decision Points. The advance remains intact while price holds above the session structure. A sustained move above 6876 would indicate continuation of the upward trend. A break below the late-session consolidation range would begin to weaken the current structure and raise the likelihood that wave C{-6} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued sideways overnight with a shallow downward drift. The market showed no meaningful response to the PCE inflation report with February data, reinforcing that current price action is being driven by forward expectations rather than backward-looking data.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory’s principal analysis holds that rising wave B{-6} continues. The alternative analysis treats yesterday’s high at 6847.25 as the end of wave B{-6} and the beginning of declining wave C{-6}.

Neither view has been confirmed. For now, I am retaining the B{-6}-continues analysis unless and until the chart provides clear evidence that wave C{-6} is underway.

Rising wave B{-6} is a subwave within declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave within corrective wave 4{-4}. That larger correction, which began on October 29, 2025, appears to be taking the form of an expanding triangle. The 4-hour futures chart below shows wave 4{-4} in its entirety from that starting point.

Decision Points. A move above 6847.25 keeps rising wave B{-6} intact and suggests further upside within the corrective structure. A sustained move below the recent support zone near 6780 strengthens the case that wave C{-6} is underway. Until one of these levels is clearly broken, the analysis remains in a zone of ambiguity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peak for the day remains at 6847.25. From that point, the price fell to 6780, then rose slightly and returned to the decline.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues, although it appears to have encountered resistance near that level, and an argument can be made that today’s high marks the end of wave B{-6} and the beginning of wave C{-6}. Neither scenario has been verified, and I am retaining the B-wave continues until the chart provides evidence to the contrary. A decline below 6760 would provide the first indication that the upward structure is failing.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to rise during the Tuesday’s session, picking up the pace after the closing bell, fell sharply early overnight, to 6652.25, and immediately resumed the rapid rise, reaching 6811.50. From that point the direction turned sideways, and the price remained in the 6840s and 6830s, dropping a bit lower as the opening bell approached.

The rise coincided in part with President Trump’s announcement a cease fire in the war, agreed to by both Iran and the United States.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the rise is clearly part of rising wave B{-6}, which began from 6353.25 on March 30. The wave is a subwave of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025 from 6953.75 and is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave B{-6} appears to be in its final subwave, C{-7}. When it is complete, declining wave C{-6} will begin.

Wave 4{-4}, as a triangle, will have five subwaves, A through E.

Decision Points. The key question is whether rising wave B{-6} has completed its final subwave, C{-7}. The current rally has reached the mid-6800s, placing it within the expected resistance zone for B{-6}, roughly 6620–6680 and extending higher as momentum carried beyond the initial target. A continued hold above 6800, followed by a push to new recovery highs, would argue that C{-7} is still extending and that B{-6} is not yet complete. Conversely, a decisive break below 6760 would be the first signal that upward momentum has failed. A further decline below 6652.25, the overnight low, would strongly suggest that B{-6} has ended and that declining wave C{-6} is underway. Until that lower boundary is broken, the upward structure of B{-6} remains intact, but the risk of reversal is elevated given the maturity of the move.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 pm., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continue to trade between the overnight high, 6667, and the session low, 6572.75 — a range-bound session with no directional progress.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues. The analysis from this morning remains unchanged.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fluctuate in a net sideways range, reaching a high overnight of 6667 and a low of 6502, with the price largely staying within a narrower band between the 6610s and 6630s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to identify rising wave B{-6} as underway, despite the lack of directional progress. Within this framework, price action reflects collective sentiment, which so far this week has been characterized by watchful waiting. The Consumer Price Index for March will be published on Thursday, and President Trump has said that military escalation will occur tonight if Iran does not agree to a ceasefire.

It is a time of uncertainty, in the markets and in the world.

Wave B{-6}, although rising, is part of larger declining structures: Wave C{-5} and its parent, corrective wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 105-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have spent the session fluctuating within a narrow range, roughly from the 6630s down into the 6620s. Price action has been choppy and overlapping, with no sustained directional push.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues, but the advance has stalled into sideways movement. The session’s price action is best interpreted as a continuation of an internal consolidation rather than a completed reversal. The structure remains consistent with a developing corrective pattern within B{-6}, rather than the start of a new downward impulse.

There is no evidence at this stage of a decisive break either higher or lower. Instead, the market remains beneath the April 1 high at 6663.75.

Decision Points. The April 1 high at 6663.75 remains the immediate upside barrier. A sustained move above that level would confirm continuation of wave B{-6} and open the path toward the upper end of the 6620–6680 resistance zone, with the potential for a modest extension.

On the downside, the 6620–6630 area continues to serve as the near-term pivot. Holding above that zone supports the view that the market is consolidating within B{-6}. A break below 6600 would weaken that interpretation and suggest that the rally is losing structure.

The overnight low at 6567 remains the key near-term support. A move below that level would indicate that the current upward leg has likely completed and that a deeper correction is underway. The broader wave structure remains intact as long as price holds above 6353.25, the low of wave A{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading last night with a small opening gap to the downside. The price reached an overnight low of 6567 within the first 15 minutes, then turned higher, rising to a peak of 6651.25. It has since pulled back slightly in a shallow, orderly correction.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis interprets the rise as evidence that wave B{-6} continues to advance. So far, the rally remains below its prior high of 6663.75, set on April 1.

Wave B{-6} is a subwave within falling wave C{-5}, itself part of a larger corrective wave, 4{-4}. That correction continues to take the form of an expanding triangle.

The current pullback appears corrective rather than impulsive, suggesting that the rising structure of B{-6} remains intact for now.

Decision Points. The April 1 high at 6663.75 remains the immediate ceiling. A sustained move above that level would confirm continuation of wave B{-6}, with the next likely target in or slightly above the 6620–6680 resistance zone.

On the downside, the 6620–6630 area serves as a near-term pivot. Holding above that zone supports the view that the present pullback is a shallow internal correction. A break below 6600 would weaken the rising structure and suggest that the rally is losing momentum.

The overnight low at 6567 is the key near-term support. A move below that level would indicate that the current upward leg has likely completed and that a deeper correction is underway. The larger structure remains intact as long as price holds above 6353.25, the low of wave A{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 105-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

12:05 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. Despite the market holiday, and contrary to the usual last-day-of-the week practice, the S&P 500 E-mini futures continued trading until 9:10 Friday morning. The price declined overnight until the Employment Situation Report was released at 8:30 a.m. New York time, when it shot up 28 points to 6639, and immediately pulled back to 6598.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis: Rising wave B{-6} continues.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:05 p.m., 105-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Friday holiday. U.S. stock, options and futures markets will be closed on Friday, April 3, for Good Friday, a Christian holiday. Bonds will close early, at noon New York time. Trading will resume on Monday, April 6. The Employment Situation Report will be published on Friday, and when the S&P 500 E-mini futures resume trading Sunday, April 5, at 6 p.m. New York time, it will be the first opportunity to check for a market reaction, if any.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise overnight and continued to climb during the session, reaching 6644.50 before pulling back slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise bolsters the likelihood that rising wave B{-6} continues.

Decision Points.
A break above yesterday’s high at 6653.75 would confirm that wave B{-6} continues to extend higher. Failure below 6580 would weaken the bullish case and suggest that the current rise is corrective.A sustained move below 6500 would shift the interpretation toward the start of wave C{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now.
The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, extending the decline from Wednesday’s high at 6653.75.

The price rose modestly ahead of President Trump’s national address on the Iran War, then sold off sharply as the speech began, driving the market down to an overnight low of 6503.75 before a partial rebound.

Initial jobless claims, released at 8:30 a.m. ET, showed continued labor market stability, with claims falling to 202,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the prior week.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory terms, the decline is now testing the structure of rising wave B{-6}. The drop from 6653.75 to 6503.75 is sharp and has retraced roughly half of the wave’s advance, raising a legitimate question as to whether B{-6} has already ended and wave C{-6} has begun.

The decline creates a case for wave C, but it remains too limited in structure and follow-through to confirm that interpretation. The price action so far appears more consistent with a volatile internal correction than with the start of a sustained impulsive decline.

For the moment, I am maintaining the working assumption that wave B{-6} remains underway. Within the larger structure, B{-6} is a subwave of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. Above 6560–6580, the corrective interpretation remains intact and B{-6} can resume higher. A break above 6653.75 would confirm that extension.

Between 6500 and 6560, the structure remains unresolved and likely to produce continued volatility.

Below 6500, the probability increases that B{-6} ended at Wednesday’s high. Acceleration below 6480 would confirm that wave C{-6} is underway.

Likelihood favors B{-6} still unfolding, while a sustained break below 6500 would shift the count to a developing C{-6} decline.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a peak of 6653.75 during the session and then declined, approaching 6600 before bouncing back into the 6620s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues. The pullback has so far remained well above the wave’s starting point at 6353.25. As long as the price remains above that level, the rising structure of B{-6} remains intact.

Decision Points. A move above 6653.75 would signal that rising wave B{-6} is still extending and could carry higher within the 6620–6680 target zone. A break below 6600 would suggest that the rally is losing momentum, though only a deeper decline would begin to call the B{-6} count into question.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, spiking to a high of 6643.75 following the release of the ADP National Employment Report for March. The federal government’s Employment Situation Report will be released on Friday, when U.S. markets are closed. The price immediately retreated to 6590.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as further confirmation that wave B{-6} is underway. That wave is a subwave of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. The overnight high pushed the price into the 6620–6680 target range, based on resistance levels within the Elliott Wave structure. However, the sharp rejection suggests that wave B{-6} is still unfolding and has not yet reached completion.

A sustained move back above 6620 would signal continuation toward the upper end of the range, while failure below 6560 would suggest the rally has stalled and call the B{-6} count into question.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose rapidly during the session, reaching a high so far in the 6560s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise carried the price above a key decision point at 6480, confirming that wave A{-6} ended overnight at 6353.25 and that rising wave B{-6} is now underway.

How high is wave B{-6} likely to rise? The rally is now in progress, with a likely target in the 6620–6680 range, based on nearby resistance levels. Above 6480, the rally remains intact; failure below that level would call the count into question.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Shortly after Monday’s session ended, the S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 6353.25 and then began to rise, so far reaching 6470.

What does it mean? I’ve reworked the chart to show a broader view of the Elliott Wave Theory structure—the entirety of wave 4{-4}, a correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} is currently in wave C{-5}. As an expanding triangle, it will ultimately have five subwaves, ending with wave E{-5}. Wave C{-5} is in its first subwave, A{-6}, and will end with wave C{-6}.

In theory, although not always in practice, wave C{-5} in the triangle—a falling wave in this case—moves beyond the end of wave A{-5}, and wave D{-5} will move beyond the end of wave B{-5}. The entire wave 4{-4} structure began on October 29, 2025, and has not yet completed its middle wave. We likely have months to go before wave 4{-4} reaches its end.

The overnight low might well be the end of wave A{-6}, or perhaps not. The nature of the overnight rise isn’t yet clear enough to know with confidence. For the moment, I’ve retained the A{-6} label and am assuming it is still in progress.

Decision Points. The key question is whether wave A{-6} has reached completion.

Primary resistance (decision zone): 6460–6480

• Reclaim and hold above 6480 → A{-6} is likely complete
• Confirms transition into rising B{-6}
• Expect continuation higher, not a fade

Failure zone (bear continuation): 6450–6460

• Repeated rejection here → A{-6} still unfolding
• Current rally = corrective bounce within the decline

Downside confirmation: below 6353.25

• Break of overnight low → A{-6} not finished
• Opens path toward next leg lower within C{-5}

Early warning level: 6400–6420

Suggests B{-6} has not taken control

Loss of this zone after rally — signals weakness

Bottom line: Above 6480, the market shifts into a confirmed B{-6} rally. Below 6353, A{-6} is still driving lower. Between those levels, we are in a transition zone where the structure is still resolving.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 31, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com