3:30 p.m. New York time
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall at a rapid pace during the session, extending the decline from the pre-session peak at 7027.25 down to a session low so far of 6886.25.
Elliott Wave Theory: Today’s selloff is large enough, in my view, to justify switching the wave labels—but with a caveat. I’ve seen declines this deep reverse, reclaim the entire move, and finish the day surging higher. So this is a working count, not a final verdict.
With that caveat in mind, here’s the updated analysis: the January 27 peak at 7043 is now treated as the end of rising wave B{-9}, and the decline from that high is treated as the start of falling wave C{-9}, which appears to still be underway. I have not labeled the C{-9} subwaves yet, but I’ve marked two turning points with dates as likely candidates.
Decision points under this new analysis: If C{-9} is truly underway, price should have difficulty reclaiming key resistance zones, and it should eventually break the remaining supports.
Bullish invalidation (B{-9} revived): A push back toward 7027.25 would put the C{-9} label under pressure, and a decisive move above 7043 would invalidate the “B{-9} ended” call and restore B{-9} as the dominant count.
Bearish confirmation path (C{-9} strengthens): A decisive break and hold below today’s low (6886.25) would be the next “this is still trending down” signal. Below that, the next major decision point is the January 21 low at 6814.50—a break of that level would strongly support the C{-9} case.
“Churn / not done” path: A rebound that regains and holds the mid-range (first back above the 6900s, then into the 6960s–6990s zone) would reduce confidence that today is a clean, one-direction C{-9} impulse.
9:35 a.m. New York time.
What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded between 7002.50 and 7027.25 overnight and, as of the latest bar, remain in a net sideways range (around 7015).
What does it mean? In Elliott Wave terms, yesterday’s rise increased the likelihood that rising wave B{-9} (begun January 21) is still underway. However, the market has not yet pushed above 7043 (the January 27 high), so the alternative scenario remains open: that B{-9} ended at 7043 and declining wave C{-9} has begun. Until price makes a decisive move—above 7043 to confirm B{-9}, or back down through key supports to strengthen C{-9}—the B{-9} count remains the status quo.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.
The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.
- 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
- A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- S&P 500 Futures
- 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
- 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
- C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
- 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
- C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 3, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on work at www.timbovee.com
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