3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures moved above the August 13 high, 7838.50, and so far have reached into the 7840s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The higher high has consequences for our analysis, as follows.

First, falling wave E{-5} is not underway, and never was.

Second, rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25, is still underway and has never reached an end point.

Third, wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Such surprises happen from time to time in Elliott Wave analysis, an example of the fact that Elliott Wave Theory is not a prediction of the future but a mapping of what has occurred, with a discussion of the implications based on prior, similar patterns.

At such moments, I tend to pause and repeat a quote that appears at the bottom of each analysis, in the Learning and resources section. The quote is from 20th-century semanticist Alfred Korzybski in his book Science and Sanity (1933): “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And, I always add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

Decision Points. Rising wave C{-6} and therefore wave D{-5} remain underway. The move above 7838.50 removes that former peak as an Elliott Wave barrier, so there is no reason to assume that today’s new high marks an endpoint. The task now is to watch for evidence that wave C{-6} has completed. A reversal by itself would not be enough; the developing structure would need to distinguish an internal correction within C{-6} from completion of wave D{-5}. Only after D{-5} is shown to be complete would falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle, begin.

The revised chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise when trading resumed, opening at 7713.75 and reaching into the 7770s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory is clear on the larger waves but uncertain on the smallest.

Big waves underway:

• Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.
• Wave E{-5}, a falling wave that began on August 13 and is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.
• Wave A{-6}, also falling, began on August 13 and is the first subwave within wave E{-5}.

Smaller subwave:

Falling wave A{-7}, the first subwave of wave A{-6}, may still be underway Or, wave A{-7} may have ended at 7575 on September 16, with rising wave B{-7}, the second of three subwaves, now underway.

The situation remains ambiguous. The rise to 7771.25 has retraced nearly three-quarters of the decline from the August 13 high, 7838.50, to the September 16 low, 7575. The farther the price rises, the more likely it becomes that wave B{-7} is underway, although the move has not yet provided verification.

Decision Points. Continued strength would add evidence that wave B{-7} is underway. A renewed decline would leave the smaller-degree count unresolved until the emerging structure makes clear whether wave A{-7} continued or a completed B{-7} has given way to the next declining subwave. A move back to the August 13 high, 7838.50, would require reassessment of the larger count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Now Outdated. New chart above

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 7675 and then rebounding to the neighborhood of 7700.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its initial subwave, falling wave A{-6}. Today’s decline strengthens that interpretation after the ambiguity discussed this morning.

Decision Points. A renewed decline would add evidence that wave A{-6} remains underway. A sustained rise above today’s overnight high of 7739.25 would again raise the possibility that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from an early low of 7696 to a high of 7739.25. It then reversed, all of the gain and then some. The price then began to rise as the opening bell drew near.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to conclude that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

Within that wave, the question remains whether falling wave A{-6} continues or whether it has ended and rising wave B{-6} is underway. The overnight rise to 7739.25 was too small to verify the B{-6} scenario, and the subsequent retreat nearly back to its starting point weakened that possibility further. The ambiguity therefore remains unresolved.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Within that sort of triangle, each rising wave moves higher than the one before, and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor, allowing boundaries to be drawn that in theory show the endpoints of future waves in each direction.

I say “in theory” because sometimes a wave fails to reach the boundary — a condition called truncation — or overshoots the boundary, as happened with rising wave D{-5}, which ended on August 13. Wave E{-5} began on that date and has yet to reach below the upper boundary. The lower boundary is in the 6130s today and declining every moment.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7739.25 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} has ended and wave B{-6} is underway, although considerably more upside movement would be needed for confirmation. A decline below the overnight low of 7696 would strengthen the alternative that wave A{-6} remains underway. The larger analysis is unchanged either way: Falling wave E{-5} continues, with the declining lower boundary of the expanding triangle still far below the present market.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to slowly stair-step higher in the later stages of the session, reaching into the 7710s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave A{-6} within wave E{-5} continues. Within it, falling wave A{-7} appears to be unfolding as a five-subwave decline. When wave A{-7} is complete, rising wave B{-7} within wave A{-6} will begin.

Decision Points. The immediate markers remain 7722.25, today’s high, and 7617.50, today’s low. A sustained move above 7722.25 would strengthen the case that wave B{-7} is underway. A move below 7617.50 would favor the interpretation that wave A{-7} continues.

12:30 p.m. New York time

What happened to this morning’s analysis? When I booted up my MacBook Air this morning, ready to analyze the S&P 500 futures, a Google installation brought the Gemini AI into contact with my email. Things went downhill from there. Many programs and services no longer worked properly, including WordPress, the platform I use to post my analyses. It took a while, but I fixed it. Here’s this morning’s analysis, several hours late.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 7617.50 to 7722.25, then pulled back into the 7680s before bouncing to slightly above 7700.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees no change in the analysis. Falling wave E{-5} and its subwave, falling wave A{-6}, continue. Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that took the form of an expanding triangle and began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The overnight rise has not changed the larger Elliott Wave count. The immediate markers are the overnight high of 7722.25 and low of 7617.50. A sustained move above the high would strengthen the case for a larger countertrend rise within A{-6}; a break below the low would strengthen the case that the decline is resuming.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures barely budged when the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal-funds target range by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. The futures dived sharply a half hour later, when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh began his news conference and signaled that additional rate increases may follow. As the closing bell approached, the futures had fallen into the 7580s, a large distance from the session high of 7699.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave A{-6} continues, as does its parent, falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. The sharp post-FOMC decline has removed the ambiguity between falling wave A{-6} and a possible rising wave B{-6}. The break well below Tuesday’s low supports the conclusion that wave A{-6} remains underway. No new trades will be entered today. The market’s overnight response will provide the next useful evidence as to whether today’s decline continues or begins to retrace.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to rise around Tuesday’s closing bell and continued higher overnight, reaching 7689.25 as the opening bell drew near. The price remained well below the prior day’s high of 7701 and above the prior day’s low of 7643.50. The market essentially went nowhere, likely in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled interest-rate announcement at 2 p.m. ET.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues with the same analysis: Falling wave E{-5} continues. It is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. The subwaves of wave E{-5} remain stuck in an unresolved ambiguity: Either falling wave A{-6} continues, or it has ended and rising wave B{-6} is underway.

Decision Points. The FOMC announcement at 2 p.m. ET is likely to dominate today’s trading. Until then, movement within Tuesday’s range provides little useful information about the Elliott Wave structure. A sustained move below Tuesday’s 7643.50 low would favor the interpretation that wave A{-6} remains underway, while a sustained rise above Tuesday’s 7701 high would add weight to the possibility that wave B{-6} has begun. Neither move by itself would necessarily verify the label.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 o.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures moved lower during the session, to 7643.50, and then remained in a narrow range, fluctuating between the 7640s and the 7660s as the closing bell drew nearer.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave E{-5} continues. The decline increases the likelihood that wave E{-5} remains in its first of three subwaves, falling wave A{-6}.

Decision Points. A sustained decline below 7643.50 would further strengthen the case that wave A{-6} remains underway. A substantial rise would revive the alternative that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun. Neither scenario has yet been verified.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell for much of overnight, from 7701 to 7645. The futures then recovered, rising into the 7690s, resuming the fall as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? The movement has been insufficient to alter how Elliott Wave Theory sees the chart.

Within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle, the final subwave, falling wave E{-5}, is now underway.

At that point, things get less clear. Either the first subwave — falling wave A{-6} — is underway, or that wave has ended and the second subwave — rising wave B{-6} — has begun.

The higher the price rises, the more likely the wave B{-6} scenario becomes, and the lower it declines, the more likely it becomes that wave A{-6} is still underway. The overnight decline initially strengthened the likelihood that wave A{-6} continues, but the subsequent recovery weakened that evidence and left the question unresolved.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low of 7645 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} remains underway. A sustained rise above 7701 would strengthen the alternative that wave A{-6} has ended and wave B{-6} has begun. Neither move by itself would necessarily provide verification. The larger structure is unchanged: falling wave E{-5} remains underway within wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed from the overnight low, 7661.25, and then began to rise, so far reaching 7719.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. Within declining wave E{-5}, the higher the price rises, the more likely it becomes that the first subwave, falling wave A{-6}, has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun. So far, however, the rise has been insufficient to justify relabeling the active subwave as wave B{-6}.

Decision Points. The working count therefore remains that falling wave A{-6} is underway within wave E{-5}. A continued rise would strengthen the case that A{-6} has ended and B{-6} has begun, but confirmation is still lacking.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? After an opening gap and a rise to 7701.25 when trading resumed overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed, stair-stepping down into the 7660s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see falling wave E{-5} as being underway. There is less certainty about which subwave is presently active. The bulk of the movement since wave E{-5} began has been downward, suggesting that wave A{-6} — the first subwave — remains underway. Yet at some point, perhaps sooner or perhaps later, the second subwave will begin. That rising wave B{-6} will carry the price higher, while remaining below the wave E{-5} starting point, 7838.50 on August 13.

All of this is happening within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, and whose boundaries are shown on the chart as blue lines. The prior rising wave D{-5} moved significantly beyond the upper boundary of the triangle, and wave E{-5} has yet to move below it on its journey toward the lower boundary.

Decision Points. The working count remains that wave A{-6} is underway within falling wave E{-5}. A sustained rise could eventually provide evidence that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun, but the overnight rise and reversal provide no such evidence so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures remained stuck during the session, fluctuating sideways just below the pre-session peak of 7683.50. The rise has carried the price only to levels seen during the prior decline two days ago, a minuscule distance in the grand scheme of things.

Elliott Wave Theory: From the larger wave to the smaller, falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its subwave A{-6}. The status of the wave of smaller degree is ambiguous — either falling wave A{-7} continues, or it ended at yesterday’s low of 7585.50 and rising wave B{-7} has begun.. There is as yet no verification either way.

Decision Points. A sustained decline below 7585.50 would show that wave A{-7} remains underway. Continued strength would increase the likelihood that A{-7} has ended and rising wave B{-7} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? After the release of the Consumer Price Index report, the S&P 500 E-mini futures first fell sharply, reaching a low of 7620.50, and then reversed, rising to 7683.50 before retreating slightly.

The August report showed inflation extending across a broad range of categories rather than being confined to energy. Most major categories were higher from a year earlier, many by 2% or more, while energy commodities were up 28%.

The breadth of the increases, combined with the sharp rise in energy prices, is likely to add pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee as it prepares to meet next week on interest-rate policy.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory view of the chart remains unchanged at the larger degrees. Declining wave E{-5} continues, as does its subwave, wave A{-6}. It’s possible that the next smaller subwave, wave A{-7}, has ended and wave B{-7} has begun, although it is impossible to know for sure.

Decision Points. A sustained rise would strengthen the case that wave B{-7} is underway. A renewed decline to new lows would instead suggest that wave A{-7} is continuing. At the larger degrees, neither outcome changes the ongoing decline in waves A{-6} and E{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to decline overnight from 7666.25. The fall picked up speed from 7627 as economic reports were released at 8:30 a.m., and reached a low of 7595 moments before the opening bell, Notably, the decline began hours before the economic reports were released. The reports accelerated a decline that was already underway.

What does it mean? The decline carried the futures into the 7500s for the first time since August 3, and the price remains well above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle described by Elliott Wave Theory, which at 8:30 a.m. was in the mid-7270s. The futures have therefore not yet returned within the triangle.

The decline reinforces the present wave analysis: Declining wave E{-5} continues, as do its declining subwave A{-6} and, within that subwave, declining wave A{-7}.

Decision Points. The next major Elliott Wave milestone will be a decline through the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, now in the mid-7270s. Until then, the decline remains outside the triangle despite its increasing speed. A sustained rise above 7838.50, the August 13 start of wave E{-5}, would invalidate the present E{-5} count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 7628.75, and then bounced into the 7640s and 7650s, where they remained as the session neared its end.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is unchanged from this morning. Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its subwave, falling wave A{-6}, with falling wave A{-7} underway within it.

Decision Points. The session low at 7628.75 is the immediate downside marker. A break below that level would extend the present decline. The afternoon rebound is small relative to the larger structure and, so far, gives no reason to alter the bearish count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways overnight, fluctuating from the 7670s to the 7690s. As the opening bell drew nearer, the price entered a sharp decline, reaching a low of 7644.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the pattern as falling wave E{-5} and its subwave, falling wave A{-6}. Within A{-6}, falling wave A{-7} is also underway. Wave A{-6} is the first of three subwaves within wave E{-5}.

The parent wave is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave E{-5} is the final wave of the triangle and can be expected to decline into the neighborhood of the lower boundary of the triangle, currently in the 6140s and declining with every moment of trading. Wave E{-5} might also come up short, ending well before the level of the lower boundary, although such truncation is less common.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the decline continues after the opening bell and carries the futures below the overnight low of 7644.50. A rebound above the overnight high of 7691.25 would interrupt the immediate decline but would not, by itself, alter the larger bearish analysis. The present wave E{-5} count remains intact unless price rises above its August 13 starting point at 7838.50.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell into the 7680s early in the session and then rose to a few points above 7700. They fluctuated mainly between those levels for much of the session. As the closing bell approached, the futures broke lower, reaching a session low so far of 7676.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s movements have no impact on the analysis. Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its subwave, falling wave A{-6}, and that wave’s initial subwave, falling wave A{-7}.

Decision Points. The decline remains consistent with the bearish Elliott wave structure. Today’s fluctuations provide no evidence that any of the three active falling waves has ended.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose early in overnight trading to 7764.50 and then began to fall. So far, the decline has reached 7687.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. A downtrending correction, wave 4{-4}, has been underway since October 29, 2025. The correction has taken the form of an expanding triangle, during which each rising wave moves higher than the one before and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor.

Each subwave has three smaller waves within it. The current subwave is falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}. Wave E{-5} is within its initial subwave, falling wave A{-6}.

One way of understanding an expanding triangle is to draw lines marking its boundaries and extend them into the future. On this chart, the upper boundary connects the October 29 start of wave 4{-4} with the end of wave B{-5}. The lower boundary connects the ends of falling waves A{-5} and C{-5}.

In theory, the subwaves of the triangle should remain within those boundaries. In practice, sometimes they don’t. The most recent rising subwave, wave D{-5}, broke through the upper boundary in late April in a dramatic fashion and continued to rise, ending well above the boundary.

So far, falling wave E{-5} remains above the upper boundary, where it began. In theory, it will eventually reach the lower boundary, which moves farther down during each minute of trading and presently is in the 6140s. Sometimes, however, waves come up short and end before reaching the boundary.

With today’s low in the 7680s so far, it is clear that wave E{-5} has quite a distance to fall if the expanding-triangle structure continues to play out. The wave is in its first subwave, falling wave A{-6}, which in turn is in its initial subwave, falling wave A{-7}.

Decision Points. The analysis remains bearish at all three presently active degrees: E{-5}, A{-6} and A{-7}. The important question at this stage is not whether the larger decline has completed, but how the smaller waves will develop as price works its way downward. Countertrend rises are to be expected along the way and, by themselves, would not invalidate the larger bearish structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com