9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a new peak of 7623 after trading resumed overnight. It then reversed sharply, falling into the 7570s, as renewed U.S.–Iran military exchanges added to market uncertainty.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged from where it has been for several months: Wave D{-5} is underway. It appears to be nearing its end. Each new peak has been followed by a reversal and decline, perhaps suggesting that the end has arrived. And yet, so far, each decline has reversed back to the upside and produced another new peak.

This time? No idea.

Wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward corrective wave that has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle.

A common way in Elliott Wave Theory to estimate where a triangle may reverse is to draw boundary lines: one connecting the start of wave A with the start of wave C, and another connecting the end of wave A with the end of wave C. Those lines form the upper and lower boundaries of the triangle, although the boundaries are not always honored. The present wave D{-5} has overshot the upper boundary by a significant distance.

On the chart below, I have drawn the boundaries in red. Note that the farther into the future a boundary extends, the farther it moves in its direction: higher for the upper boundary and lower for the lower boundary.

Wave D{-5} will be followed by declining wave E{-5}, which should reach toward the lower boundary and may move beyond it, just as wave D{-5} has moved beyond the upper boundary.

The end of wave E{-5}, months in the future, will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of uptrending wave 5{-5}. That wave is likely to rise above the end of wave D{-5}, perhaps significantly so. Sometimes, however, a 5th wave will fall short, a condition known as truncation. We will not know whether wave 5{-5} is truncated until the chart itself gives the answer.

Decision Points. Rising wave D{-5} remains the primary count until the price produces a decline large enough to matter at the D/E degree. The operational confirmation that wave E{-5} has begun would be a fall back below the red upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle. Until then, the overnight reversal is an important warning, but not yet proof that wave D{-5} has ended.

Charts. The upper chart shows the entirety of wave 4{-4}. The lower chart show wave D{-5}’s movements overnight and a few minutues into the session.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 am., 6-hour bars with volume]

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 5-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose even higher during the session, to another new peak, this time 7611.50. Elliott wave D{-5} continues its rise.

Decision Points. A move above 7611.50 would further extend wave D{-5}, but would not change its late-stage status. A decline back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle remains the operational confirmation that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has become the primary count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new peak overnight, 7595.75, and thereafter fluctuated sideways.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory count shows a fifth subwave now underway within the rise that began on May 19. That rise is part of wave C{-6}, the final subwave of wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25.

Bottom line: Wave D{-5} is nearing its end, but as Yogi Berra put it, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”

The entire structure is encased in wave 4{-4}, a declining corrective wave that began on October 29, 2025, from 6953.75 and has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A move above 7595.75 would extend wave D{-5}, but would not imply that much more rise lies ahead. Sideways movement below 7595.75 would be consistent with a late-stage wave. A decline large enough to fall back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle remains the operational confirmation that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has become the primary count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 7583.75 during the session, another peak that, under Elliott Wave Theory, confirms that wave D{-5} remains underway. The wave began on March 30, and as is often the case late in a wave, the new peak could prove to be its end, but that is not yet certain.

Decision Points. A rise above 7583.75 would extend wave D{-5}. A drop below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would shift the working count to declining wave E{-5}. Until then, D{-5} remains the primary count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to fall from yesterday’s session high, 7570.75, and continued overnight to 7505.75. The futures then reversed, returning to the 7540s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to favor the view that rising wave D{-5} remains underway, as it has been since beginning on March 30. The overnight decline was small compared with the full rise from the March 30 low, and the recovery before the opening bell further weakens the argument that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

The rise has slowed in mid-May, and the smaller movements may be signs that wave D{-5} is nearing completion. That said, near completion is not the same as complete.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October last year. When D{-5} is complete, declining wave E{-5} will begin. When E{-5} is complete, wave 4{-4} also will be complete.

Decision Points.

A rise above 7570.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending.

A fall below 7505.75 would be an early warning that the 7570.75 peak may have ended wave D{-5}, but it would not by itself confirm wave E{-5}.

The operational confirmation that wave E{-5} has begun remains a fall back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, which is the form taken by wave 4{-4}. Until that happens, D{-5} remains the primary count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching a low of 7515, and then recovered part of that loss.

Elliott Wave Theory. I continue to treat rising wave D{-5} as underway. The decline from the overnight high, 7570.75, is larger than the pullback discussed in the morning analysis, but it remains small when measured against the full rise from March 30 at 6353.25.

See the morning analysis, below, for a detailed discussion of wave D{-5}’s status.

Decision Points. A rise above 7570.75 would keep wave D{-5} clearly alive, although a new high at this late stage would not imply that much more rise remains ahead.

A decline below 7515 would strengthen the argument that 7570.75 may have been the end of wave D{-5}, but it would remain an early warning, not confirmation.

The stronger Elliott Wave confirmation would come if price falls back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle. That would make declining wave E{-5} the primary count.

A later decline below 6353.25 would fulfill the expanding-triangle expectation that wave E{-5} fall below the end of wave C{-5}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new overnight peak, 7570.75. The new high is one point above the previous peak, 7569.75. The price then fell back into the 7530s.

What does it mean? The small push to a higher high verifies, using Elliott Wave Theory, that wave D{-5} continues its upward journey, which began on March 30 from 6353.25.

The decline from the prior high, 7569.75, was too small to argue strongly that wave D{-5} had ended at that peak and that wave E{-5} had begun. It was a blink within the much larger rise from March 30. And so it proved to be.

The message of the new high, 7570.75, once again will depend upon what comes next — a small decline, a small higher high, or something significant.

There is no way to know yet. Once again, the new peak may be the end of wave D{-5}, or not.

In either case, the parent wave, a 4th-wave downward correction labeled wave 4{-4}, will not be complete until wave D{-5} and then the future declining wave E{-5} are complete. The end of E{-5} will be the end of the Expanding Triangle form that wave 4{-4} has traced, with each rising subwave rising higher than the one before and each falling subwave falling lower. That suggests wave E{-5} is likely to reach the 6350s and lower.

Decision Points. A rise above 7570.75 would keep wave D{-5} clearly alive, although a new high at this late stage would not imply that much more rise remains ahead.

A sideways movement near the high, or a small decline followed by another small higher high, would also keep wave D{-5} alive.

A decline that remains shallow compared with the rise from March 30 would not, by itself, be enough to declare wave D{-5} complete. The chart would need to produce a decline large enough to matter at the D/E degree.

A decisive decline from the 7570.75 area, especially one that breaks below recent intraday support and continues lower, would strengthen the argument that wave D{-5} has ended and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise early in the session, reaching into the 7550s, and then resumed the decline that had begun overnight. The price has fallen to a session low of 7517 as the session enters its final half hour.

Elliott Wave Theory. The pullback within rising wave D{-5} has carried the session low below the overnight low, 7525.25. That increases the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended at the peak of the rise that began on March 30.

Possibly. But not certainly. The decline could still prove to be another wave D{-5} head-fake before a rise to a higher peak. At this stage, every pullback from a new high must be taken seriously, but none can be treated as confirmed until price follows through.

Decision Points. A new high above the wave peak, 7569.75, would keep wave D{-5} alive and would invalidate the immediate case that wave E{-5} has begun.

A continued decline below 7517 would strengthen the argument that wave E{-5} is underway. A sharper break below the 7500 area would strengthen that case further, especially if followed by lower highs on rebounds.

A recovery back into the 7540s and 7550s would weaken the immediate wave E{-5} case, but would not by itself prove that wave D{-5} is continuing. The deciding evidence remains price: either a new high for D{-5}, or a sustained decline that begins to look like more than another intraday pullback.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new peak, 7569.75, during holiday-thinned trading. The new high verified that the rise that began on March 30 remains underway. Price then retreated overnight to 7525.25 and has recovered into the 7540s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory identifies the rise from March 30 as wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within declining wave 4{-4}, a corrective wave that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the structure of an Expanding Triangle, meaning that as its five subwaves work through their rises and falls, each rising wave reaches a higher high than the previous rising wave, and each declining wave reaches a lower low than the previous declining wave.

A line drawn between the starts of waves A{-5} and C{-5} creates an upper boundary for the triangle, with the expectation that wave D{-5} would peak in the vicinity of that boundary. Wave D{-5} has moved beyond the boundary, reaching 7569.75.

Under such circumstances, each peak is potentially the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}. Or not. The recent history of wave D{-5} has been new peak, sharp decline, recovery, and then another rise to a new peak. Which model applies to the present rise and pullback is not yet known.

Decision Points. A rise above 7569.75 would keep wave D{-5} active and extending. It would not, by itself, imply that the rise has much farther to go; this late in D{-5}, every new high also increases the risk that the next reversal will begin wave E{-5}.

Holding above the prior D{-5} peak near 7540 would support the view that the holiday-session breakout is being accepted by the regular market.

A decline below 7540 would weaken the breakout but would not by itself end wave D{-5}.

A decline below 7525.25, the overnight low, would make the pullback more serious and would strengthen the argument that the holiday high may have ended wave D{-5}.

A decline into the 7500–7507 area would restore the ambiguity that marked earlier reversals within wave D{-5}.

A decline below the 7470s would move the possible beginning of wave E{-5} from a cautionary alternate into a serious working count.

Wave D{-5} remains the working count, but Tuesday’s regular session must validate the holiday high. The price action so far is neither acceptance nor rejection. It is hovering near the key zone, which is exactly where ambiguity would be expected.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Three-day Market Weekend. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day, which honors U.S. military personnel who died in service. The S&P 500 futures will resume trading Monday evening.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching 7524. The session high stands 16 points below 7540, the peak of the rise that began on March 30.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues. If the futures exceed 7540, that would confirm that the May 14 peak was not the end of D{-5}, and that D{-5} remains the current subwave within wave 4{-4}, a corrective wave that began in October 2025.

That confirmation would not mean D{-5} has much farther to rise. This late in the structure, any new high can become the final high of D{-5}, followed by the beginning of declining wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A move above 7540 would remove the May 14 peak as a possible completed D{-5} high and would keep the immediate count pointed upward.

A failure below 7540, followed by a decline back through 7500 and then the 7480s, would preserve the ambiguity and suggest that the futures may still be forming a topping structure.

A decline below today’s session low, 7466.75, would weaken the D{-5}-continues case. A move below the 7410s, and especially into the 7350s, would strengthen the alternate count that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Until price either exceeds 7540 or falls with more force, the working count remains: D{-5} continues, but it is late enough that every high must be treated as potentially terminal.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching slightly above 7500 for the first time since May 14. The price remains below the 7540 peak of the rise that began on March 30 from 6353.25.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the case for rising wave D{-5} still being underway has been strengthened. For days there has been ambiguity over the status of the D wave: Had it ended on May 14, with declining wave E{-5} beginning, or was the D-wave rise continuing?

The alternative reading, that wave E{-5} has been underway since May 14, remains possible but has become less likely.

Decision Points. A move above 7540 would produce a new high within the rise from March 30 and would strongly support the view that wave D{-5} is still underway. It would not, by itself, prove that D has much farther to rise; this late in the structure, any new high can also become the final high of D.

A failure below 7540, followed by a decline back through the 7460s and then the 7410s, would restore the ambiguity and reopen the case that wave E{-5} may have begun at or near the May 14 high.

A decline into or below the 7350s would strengthen the wave E{-5} argument. Until that sort of downside follow-through appears, the better working count is that wave D{-5} remains active.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began the session fluctuating sideways and about midway through rose sharply, from the 7420s into the 7480s, coinciding with official optimism that an agreement between the United States and Iran was drawing near.

Such bouts of optimism about the outcome of the war have tended to be followed by a return of pessimism and decline. This time? Time will tell.

Elliott Wave Theory. The peak of the session rise, 7486.75, remains below the May 14 peak of wave D{-5}, 7540. I consider wave D{-5} to still be underway, although there are persuasive arguments that the mid-May high may have been the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}.

Today’s rise weakens the immediate argument for wave E{-5}, but it does not eliminate it. The futures remain below the May 14 high, and until that high is exceeded, the chart remains ambiguous.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7486.75, would further weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has begun and would return attention to the May 14 peak, 7540. A move above 7540 would mean wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline back into the 7420s would return the futures to the sideways area that dominated the early session. A decline below the 7407.50 area would strengthen the argument that today’s rise was only a counter-move within a larger decline.

A move below the recent lows in the 7350s would strengthen the wave E{-5} argument further. Until then, the prudent reading remains unchanged: wave D{-5} may still be underway, but the possibility that wave E{-5} has begun remains very much alive.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a high of 7469.75, and then fell sharply to the 7410s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory focuses on the fact that wave D{-5} reached a high of 7540 on May 14, but price has not yet verified whether that peak ended the wave. If it did, then wave E{-5} has begun its decline and is likely to reach the 6280s or lower.

Each wave is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a declining corrective wave that began last year in October. Wave 4 has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, and my estimate of how low wave E might go is based on the location of the triangle’s lower boundary, determined by connecting prior lows into a boundary of sorts.

Sometimes price moves beyond the boundary. For example, wave D{-5} has moved above the upper boundary and remains so.

So the bottom line is, today as in days before, wave D{-5} may still be underway, or wave E{-5} may have begun. And until it is verified that wave E has begun, the chart will label the current decline as a correction within rising wave D{-5}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7469.75, today’s overnight high, would weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has begun and would return attention to the May 14 peak, 7540. A move above 7540 would mean wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the 7407.50 area would erase the most recent short-term rise and strengthen the argument that the May 14 high was the end of wave D{-5}. A decline below the recent lows in the 7350s would strengthen that argument further.

Stronger verification of wave E{-5} would require more than a short-term selloff. A sustained decline back toward the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, now in the low 7100s, would make the wave E{-5} interpretation much harder to dismiss. Until then, the chart remains ambiguous: wave D{-5} may have ended, but it has not yet been proven to have ended.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 7458, well below the May 14 peak, 7540.

The Federal Open Market Committe, minutes, released at 2 p,m., produced little immediate movement in the futures. The FOMC sets interest rates, and the minutes carried a mildly hawkish tone, emphasizing persistent inflation risk and the possibility that policy may need to remain restrictive for longer. The futures absorbed the release without a decisive move.

Elliott Wave Theory: Price, not the Fed text, remains the deciding factor in whether wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. And the price lacks clarity, leaving unanswered the question: Which wave is underway?

Decision Points. Decision Points. A move above today’s high, 7458, would show renewed short-term strength but would not by itself prove that wave D{-5} is still underway. Only a rise above the May 14 high, 7540, would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing.

A decline below Tuesday’s low, 7354.25, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} began at 7540. A sustained move below that level would give the chart a clearer lower-high, lower-low structure from the May 14 peak.

Until either level is broken, the futures remain in the ambiguity zone: strong enough to keep wave D{-5} alive, but not strong enough to prove it; weak enough to keep wave E{-5} possible, but not weak enough to confirm it.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 7350s into the 7410s, remaining within Tuesday’s bounds and well below the May 14 high of 7540. It then fell with the opening bell.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to lack a clear answer to the question posed by this chart: Is wave D{-5} continuing its rise, or did it end on May 14, with wave E{-5} now underway?

Both wave D{-5} and wave E{-5} are, or will be, subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October. When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also be the end of wave 4{-4}, and wave 5{-4} will begin a lengthy rise.

The end of wave E{-5} will also complete the Expanding Triangle that is the form taken by wave 4{-4}. In an Expanding Triangle, each rise exceeds the prior rise and each decline exceeds the prior decline, at the same degree. The line connecting the early highs provides a provisional upper guideline, and the line connecting the early lows provides the lower guideline.

Wave D{-5} has ignored the upper boundary, moving beyond it. More precisely, it has traded well beyond the provisional upper guideline drawn from the earlier highs. That does not, by itself, invalidate the triangle count, but it does keep the count under pressure. The map remains useful, but the terrain must now decide whether the May 14 high at 7540 was the end of D{-5}, or merely another pause within an unfinished rise.

Decision Points. A move above the overnight/current rebound area in the 7410s, and especially above the 7430s to 7450s, would weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has already begun. A move above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending.

A decline below Tuesday’s low, 7354.25, would strengthen the argument that wave E{-5} began at the May 14 high. A sustained move below that level would give the chart a clearer lower-high, lower-low structure from 7540.

A larger decline back toward the upper guideline, now roughly in the low 7200s and rising with time, would be stronger evidence that wave D{-5} is complete and that wave E{-5} is underway. That remains a larger confirmation level, not an immediate intraday trigger.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a session low of 7354.25 early on, then rebounded into the 7410s before retreating again.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline to the 7350s strengthens the argument that downward wave E{-5} may have begun. The rebound into the 7410s weakens that argument somewhat, but the price remains well below the overnight high of 7440.75, which keeps the E{-5} possibility alive.

The session low also moved below the first meaningful retracement test of wave D{-5}, which began March 30 at 6353.25 and peaked May 14 at 7540. That does not confirm wave E{-5}, but it is no longer a trivial pullback.

Nonetheless, wave E{-5} has not yet been confirmed. Until it is, I shall continue to treat upward wave D{-5} as the working count, with a rising probability that it ended May 14.

Decision Points.

A move above today’s rebound high in the 7410s would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest that the futures are still trying to repair the decline.

A move above 7440.75, the overnight high, would further weaken the case that wave E{-5} has begun.

A move above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

A decline below 7354.25 would strengthen the argument that wave E{-5} has begun by producing a new session low after the failed rebound.

A decline into the low 7300s would give the E{-5} count more weight, especially if accompanied by lower highs and lower lows.

A decisive break back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would be stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked their way lower overnight, falling from 7440.75 into the 7380s.

What does it mean? The working Elliott Wave Theory count still labels upward wave D{-5} as continuing, but with less certainty than before. The wave began on March 30 from 6353.25 and reached a peak of 7540 on May 14, a level that has not yet been challenged.

Bottom line: It is possible, although not yet certain, that wave D{-5} ended on May 14 and that downward wave E{-5} has begun.

Waves D and E are both subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a corrective wave that began last October and has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. In that structure, each reversal point moves beyond the prior reversal point in the same direction. If the count is correct, wave E{-5} should eventually move below the end of wave C{-5}, 6353.25, and perhaps significantly below that price.

Decision Points.

A rise above 7440.75 would weaken the case that wave E{-5} has begun and would suggest that the overnight decline was only another pullback within still-rising wave D{-5}.

A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

A sustained decline below the overnight low near 7380 would strengthen the possibility that wave E{-5} has begun, especially if the futures continue to make lower highs and lower lows during the session.

A deeper decline toward the 7360s would be the first meaningful retracement test of the May 14 peak. A decline below that area would make the E{-5} interpretation more plausible, though not yet fully proven.

A decisive break below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would be far stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a higher high for the day, 7454.25, early in the session, and then began to fall, so far reaching the 7370s before reclaiming part of the fall.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} remains the working count — probably. At this point, every peak is potentially the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}, after it is confirmed. So far, no end of D{-5} has been confirmed.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the decline from 7454.25 is merely another pullback within wave D{-5}, or the early stage of wave E{-5}.

On the downside, the first important level is the overnight low at 7375. A move below that level would increase the likelihood that 7540, the May 14 high, was the end of wave D{-5}. The next stronger marker is near 7362, a 15% retracement of the full wave D{-5} rise from March 30. A sustained move below 7362 would not absolutely prove that wave E{-5} is underway, but it would be the first serious evidence for that interpretation.

On the upside, a recovery back above the 7400s would weaken the immediate E{-5} case. A rise above 7454.25 would show that today’s decline was only another failed attempt to turn the trend. A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending.

For now, the map has not changed, but the terrain is pressing hard against the edge of the map. Wave D{-5} remains the working label, while wave E{-5} has become a live possibility that requires close attention.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight low of 7375 shortly after trading resumed, and then began to climb, so far reaching the 7450s. The price remains below the peak of the rise that began on March 30, which is 7540, attained on May 14.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to track wave D{-5} as rising. It began on March 30 from 6353.25.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last wave within wave 4{-4}, a declining corrective wave that began on October 29, 2025, from 6953.75. The 4th wave has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, meaning that each peak is higher than the end of the previous rising wave, and each trough is lower than the end of the previous falling wave.

The Expanding Triangle, when complete, will have five subwaves, each containing three subwaves.

One method for reading the progress of an Expanding Triangle is to draw lines connecting the first two peaks and the first two troughs. They act as likely reversal points, a boundary of sorts, but sometimes their role is more that of a pause point before the move continues beyond the boundary. That is what has happened with wave D{-5}.

When will it end? Impossible to say. It appears to be nearing its end, completing wave D{-5} and marking the start of wave E{-5}, but there is no verification that it has done so yet.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high, 7453.25, would show that the rebound from 7375 remains active. A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending and that wave E{-5} has not yet begun.

On the downside, a fall below 7375 would renew the possibility that wave D{-5} ended at 7540 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. The next important level is near 7362, which is a 15% retracement of the entire wave D{-5} rise from March 30. A sustained move below that level would be the first stronger evidence for the E{-5} interpretation.

Even then, the label should be changed cautiously. At this stage, the better reading is: wave D{-5} remains the working count, but the market is now close enough to the top of that wave that any failure below recent lows must be taken seriously.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com