9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, working its way from a low of 6640 to the 6710s and then rose sharply to 6725.25, quickly retreating.

What does it mean? As always with a rapid reversal, the chart poses an Elliott Wave Theory question. In this case, the question is whether the overnight low marked the end of declining wave 5{-7} or if that wave, which began on March 10 from 6852, is still underway.

Absent evidence to the contrary, I’ve labeled the chart to show that 5th wave is not yet complete.

Likelihood: The sharp rejection at 6725 argues the bounce is still corrective for now. Certainty: Only a break below 6640 or a sustained move above 6725 will resolve whether wave 5{-7} is complete.

Decision Points. 

• 6725.25 (overnight spike high) — A sustained move above this level would strengthen the case that wave 5{-7} ended at 6640 and that a larger upward correction or new impulse is underway.
• 6710–6715 zone — This is the immediate intraday balance / pivot area. Holding above it favors continued recovery attempts; repeated failure here would suggest the rally is only corrective.
• 6640 (overnight low) — A decisive break below this level would confirm that declining wave 5{-7} is still underway, opening the door to new lows in the 6600s or below.
• 6758.50 (prior wave reference level) — Recovery above this area would materially improve the bullish structural case by signaling trend change at one lower degree.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 3/1/2026, 6852 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closng bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 6684.50, rose back into the 6720s, and then resumed the decline.

Elliott Wave Theory: Downtrending wave 5[-7} continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from 6769.50 to 6705.75, then rebounded into the 6750s before resuming their decline.

What does it mean? There is no change in the Elliott Wave interpretation. Downtrending wave 5{-7} remains underway. The overnight low may prove to be the end of its initial subwave — wave 1{-8} — but the structure is not yet clear enough to confirm that labeling.

Decision Points. A sustained move below 6705 would strengthen the case that a larger third subwave within declining wave 5{-7} is beginning. Conversely, a recovery above roughly 6765 would suggest that the market is still working through a sideways corrective phase before the next decisive decline. A break below the mid-6600s would likely confirm that downside momentum is expanding.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 3/1/2026, 6852 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way lower during the session, reaching into the 6740s so far, with rallies continuing to fail.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline strengthens the interpretation that downtrending wave 5{-7} began on March 10 and remains underway. The persistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows suggests that the post-CPI weakness is not merely corrective but part of a continuing impulse within the larger decline from the February 25 high.

Structural note: The session has been characterized by impulsive pushes downward followed by overlapping, shallow rebounds that have failed to reclaim prior swing highs. This pattern is consistent with the early stages of a developing trend rather than a completed correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose briefly when the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers was published an hour before the opening bell, then quickly retreated. The report covered price changes in February, a month that included only the first few days of the war in Iran, which has implications for energy prices derived from oil.

The February CPI did not show current inflation damage from war-driven energy. It did show enough of a turn in gasoline prices that traders may have begun pricing in the risk that March and April will.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis now yields a high degree of ambiguity. Is rising wave C{-8} complete, also ending its parent wave 4{-7}? Or is this merely another temporary decline that will be followed by a further rise in waves C{-8} and 4{-7}?

At this point, there is no way to know for sure. The market response, after the initial rise, was bearish. Based on that fact, I have marked the chart to show wave C{-8} and wave 4{-7} as ending on March 10 at 6852, with falling wave 5{-7} now underway.

Wave 5{-7} is the final subwave of declining wave 5{-6}, which began on February 25 from 6983.75.

This interpretation is highly tentative. If the price quickly reverses into the 6800 to 6820 area, and especially if it rises above 6852, I will change the labeling immediately and restore waves C{-8} and 4{-7}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 3/1/2026, 6852 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 6852 and then fell back into the 6790s, continuing the largely sideways movement that began in trading overnight.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave C{-8}, the final subwave within the upward correction labeled as wave 4{-7}, is still underway. Both waves are subwaves within the larger decline, wave 5{-6}, which began on February 25 from 6983.75.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to the overnight low, 6762.50, in the hour after yesterday’s closing bell and then rose to the high so far, 6833.50. The price subsequently reversed and fell back, retracing nearly the entire rise.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis interprets the net sideways movement as a downward correction within rising wave C{-8}, the final subwave within the upward corrective wave 4{-7}. C waves typically unfold in five subwaves.

The overnight high likely marked the end of the third subwave within C{-8}. The decline that followed appears to be the fourth subwave, a corrective move within the continuing rise.

If that interpretation is correct, one more upward push — the fifth subwave — should follow. That move would complete wave C{-8} and therefore end the larger wave 4{-7} correction. From that point, the larger downtrend would be expected to resume in falling wave 5{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 3/8/2026, 6584.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise from the overnight low, 6584.50, reaching into the 6780s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise suggests that wave C{-8}, the final subwave within the rising wave 4{-7} correction, began at the overnight low. That interpretation has now been confirmed, because the price has risen above 6758.50, the end of the preceding 1st wave, establishing that C{-8} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? When the S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading on Sunday, it opened 55 points lower than last week’s close. The opening gap was followed by a sharp decline that carried the price to 6584.50. From there it reversed, rising back to just above 6700.

The decline following the Sunday opening gap reached a low of 6584.50 before reversing upward. That level lies just above the 6580 decision point identified in the weekend planning session. Because the market reversed before breaking that threshold, Elliott Wave Theory interprets the decline as falling wave B{-8} within the ongoing wave 4{-7} correction.

What does it mean? The rebound suggests that the present rise is likely the beginning of wave C{-8}. However, the move has not yet advanced far enough to confirm that interpretation with confidence. For charting purposes, wave C{-8} will be considered confirmed if price rises above 6758.50, reclaiming the March 2 pivot and establishing a clearer upward structure.

Until that level is exceeded, the present rise is treated as a probable but not yet confirmed C{-8} within wave 4{-7}. A decisive break below 6584.50 would invalidate this interpretation and instead signal that downtrending wave 5{-7} is underway.

The chart remains labeled to show wave 4{-7} as underway, but that interpretation could change soon.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 3/8/2026, 6584.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. .The S&P 500 futures hit its low early in the session at 6715.75 and then rose, repeatedly testing the 6770s, unable to rise to 6781 or higher.

Elliott Wave Theory. The stall below 6781 favors the present analysis, that declining wave B{-8} continues. Recall that this morning’s decision-points discussion said, “a recovery above the 6785–6800 range, where the post-report decline began, would signal that the downward leg of wave B{-8} may be complete.” That strong break into the 6780s and 6790s hasn’t happened, and while the continuation of wave B{-8} has not yet been confirmed, an ongoing B wave remains the status quo.

Looking forward on Decision Points. A move above 6785–6800 would argue that wave B{-8} has ended, while a renewed decline toward 6715 or lower would suggest that B{-8} continues to extend.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, picking up the pace when the Employment Situation Report was released an hour before the opening bell. The price responded by declining from 6799 to 6738.25 within the span of 30 minutes, and then slowed the pace as it drifted lower, still in the 6730s.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the decline that followed the employment report appears to be a continuation of wave B{-8}, a downward corrective wave within rising wave 4{-7}.

Wave B corrections are often volatile and can extend further than expected before reversing. The present decline therefore may test the March 3 low near 6718.75 before the correction completes.

When wave B{-8} ends, it should be followed by an upward wave C{-8}, likely completing the larger wave 4{-7} correction.

Decision Points. If the decline continues, the first significant support lies at the March 3 low of 6718.75. A decisive break below that level would suggest that wave B{-8} is extending and could open the way toward the 6700 area before the correction ends. On the upside, a recovery above the 6785–6800 range, where the post-report decline began, would signal that the downward leg of wave B{-8} may be complete and that the market is beginning the upward wave C{-8} within the larger corrective wave 4{-7}.

How low can wave B{-8} go? Wave B corrections are often unpredictable and can extend further than expected before reversing. In the present case, the decline following the February 25 peak appears to be the C-leg of wave B{-8} within the larger corrective wave 4{-7}. A useful guideline in such structures is that the final leg of the correction frequently approaches — but does not greatly exceed — the low of the first decline in the sequence. That first decline ended at 6758.50 on March 2, and the subsequent downward leg has already moved below that level, reaching 6738.25 after the employment report. That modest overshoot suggests the correction may be nearing completion. If the decline extends further, the next logical area of support lies near the March 3 low at 6718.75, with the 6700 area marking a deeper but still plausible termination zone for wave B{-8}. A decisive break much below that region would weaken the interpretation that the present decline is part of a corrective structure and raise the possibility that a larger downward impulse is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)
  • B{-8} (none), 3/4/2026, 6900.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 6770s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The length of the decline broke a rule of Elliott — a 4th wave cannot move into the territory of the preceding 1st wave. That violation meant that the map no longer matched the terrain, and the labeling had to be changed.

The new labeling: What had been labeled the wave 3{-8} peak becomes the end of wave A{-8}, and the decline becomes wave B{-8}, which is still underway. Both waves A and B are subwaves of a rising upward correction, wave 4{-7}. When wave B{-8} is complete, it will be followed by rising wave C{-8}, which will likely mark the end of the 4{-7} correction. (There are sometimes exceptions to that norm, such as corrections that contain two or three corrective patterns.) Wave 5{-7}, within declining wave 5{-6}, would follow.

The alternative would label the former wave 3{-8} peak as the end of wave 4{-7}, and today’s decline would be seen as wave 1 of 5{-7}.

So far the decline has remained above the March 3 low of 6718.75, leaving both interpretations viable.

The next price movement should clarify which interpretation is correct. If the present decline stabilizes above the March 3 low at 6718.75 and begins a sustained rally, then the current drop will most likely prove to be wave B{-8} within rising wave 4{-7}, to be followed by a C{-8} advance completing that correction. On the other hand, if the decline continues and breaks below 6718.75, the interpretation shifts: the rally labeled 3{-8} would mark the end of wave 4{-7}, and the market would already be moving into downtrending wave 5{-7}. In short, holding above 6718.75 favors a continuing corrective pattern, while a break below that level signals that the next major downward wave has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached its overnight peak quickly and then zig-zagged lower, so far into the 6830s.

What does it mean? Nothing has changed in the Elliott Wave analysis. Declining wave 5{-6}, which began on February 25, remains underway. It is currently navigating rising wave 4{-7}, a corrective rally within the larger decline. That rally appears to be working through its fourth subwave, declining wave 4{-8}.

Completion of rising wave 5{-8} will end the corrective rally, wave 4{-7}, and begin declining wave 5{-7}, the final leg of wave 5{-6}. That move will push prices below the March 3 low, 6718.75, before the structure is complete.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose into the 6890s during the session and, despite repeated attempts, have so far been unable to break above that range.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave 2{-7} within falling wave 5{-6} continues.

A break above the 6890s would suggest the correction is extending, while failure at that level would keep the larger downward trend intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 6773.50 overnight and then began to rise, so far reaching into the 6850s as the ADP Employment Report showed an increase in employment.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, applied to the chart, suggests that rising wave 4{-7} remains underway. It is a subwave within downtrending wave 5{-6}, which began on February 25.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p. m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 6718.75 during the session, and then began to rise. So far it has reached into the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The low point in today’s session either marks the end of wave 3{-7} or the end of wave 1{-8} within wave 3{-7}. It’s not yet possible to say for sure which has occured. The rise that followed is either the beginning of wave 4{-7} or the start of wave 2{-8} within wave 3{-7}. The entire structured is within downtrending wave 5{-6}, which has been underway since February 25.

Right now price is roughly testing the former breakdown area around 6830–6850. If this rally stalls below that zone, the interpretation tilts toward a smaller-degree correction (2{-8}). If price continues higher and begins to overlap deeper into prior structure, the odds increase that 3{-7} has completed and 4{-7} is underway.

The downtrend remains intact, but the first meaningful counter-move has appeared. Likelihood still favors further downside while price remains below the breakdown zone, but certainty now depends on whether this rally can sustain itself beyond former support turned resistance.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall after yesterday’s closing bell, carrying price from about 6885 down to a low so far of 6742.75. Price then bounced, retracing toward 6800.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to support a downtrending wave 5{-6}. Today’s decline appears to be the strong middle leg of that move—declining wave 3 of one degree or another.

Degree note. There is still ambiguity about whether today’s selloff is labeled 3{-7} (one degree below 5{-6}) or a smaller-degree 3{-8} within 1{-7}. For now, that ambiguity does not change the trading read: the tape remains bearish until price proves otherwise.

Decision points. The downtrend remains intact while price holds below 6800 and especially below 6886. Holding above 6742.75 favors a near-term corrective bounce; breaking below 6742.75 favors continued downside extension.

The decline remains in force unless and until price can reclaim and hold above 6800. A break below 6742.75 would argue that the heart of the selloff is still unfolding. Two lenses, one chart: likelihood favors continued downside pressure, certainty lies at the reclaim of resistance.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 ;.m., 20-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minuscule, 3/3/2026, 6718.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise overnight, reversing the earlier downward opening gap and subsequent decline. The rally continued throughout the session, reaching into the 6910s and then pulling back, so far into the 6870s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline from the February 25 high at 6983.75 is counted as the beginning of downtrending wave 5{-6}. The low at 6758.50 appears to mark the end of the first subwave within that decline, wave 1{-7}. The subsequent rise from that low is most likely the second subwave, a corrective wave 2{-7}.

It is also possible that wave 1{-7} is still unfolding, and that the fluctuations now visible represent lower-degree waves 1{-8} and 2{-8} within it. As always in real time, there is some degree of uncertainty regarding wave degree.

The day’s rally does not require a new map. It reflects the uncovering of additional internal detail within the existing structure — a routine occurrence in Elliott Wave analysis.

Second waves often retrace deeply and can approach the origin of the first wave without altering the larger trend.

Decision levels:

6758.50 (today’s low): A break below would resume the decline and raise the probability that a third wave down is underway.

6900–6907 (today’s high zone): Sustained trade above this area would extend the retracement and increase pressure on short positions.

6983.75 (February 25 high): A move above this level would seriously challenge the 5{-6} down interpretation.

6875 (Friday’s close): A useful line in the sand for whether the rally is holding into the close and potentially into the next session.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened with a gap when trading resumed overnight. The U.S. was at peace when Friday trading ended at 6875.25. The nation was at war with Iran when trading reopened Sunday at 6820. Prices continued to decline overnight, reaching a low so far of 6768.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory treats the decline that began in late December as proof that the prior count no longer matches the chart.

In the revised map, the rise into February 25 completed wave 5{-8}. That high also completed the two larger-degree waves that encompassed it: wave C{-7} and wave 4{-6}. From there, downtrending wave 5{-6} began and has continued lower.

The tip-off came when what had been labeled wave 4{-9} (as a subwave within 5{-8} under the prior count) fell below the start of wave 1{-9}. That overlap should not occur in an impulse. When it does appear to occur, the conclusion is simple: the count is wrong, and the map must be redrawn to match the terrain.

The chart below shows the revised wave map.

If downtrending wave 5{-6} completes as expected, it would also complete a larger sequence that includes parent wave 1{-5}, which began on October 8, 2025—within a still larger chain of first waves that traces back many decades. (See my October 12, 2025 essay, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’,” for how that larger structure developed.)

Here are the decision points, as prepared by the AI ChatGPT:

• 6857 (today’s intraday high)
  Reclaiming and holding above 6857 shifts “what’s happening now” from free-fall to a short-covering / corrective bounce. It does not disprove 5{-6} down, but it would argue for a larger corrective wave before the next leg.
• 6820 (Sunday reopen / gap reference)
  Trading below 6820 keeps the gap-and-go downside pressure intact. Trading back above 6820 reduces immediate downside urgency and supports the bounce case.
• 6768.50 (today’s low so far)
  Break below 6768.50 resumes the decline and puts the market back into impulsive-trend behavior intraday.
• 6751.50 (Feb 5 swing low on the 75m chart)
  This is the next “structural” downside trigger. A clean break below 6751.50 would strengthen the case that 5{-6} is extending and that the market is not simply chopping inside the February range.
• 6790–6800 (near-term pivot zone)
  This is the “tell” area during the session: holding above it supports stabilization; losing it tends to reopen the path to 6768.50 and then 6751.50.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 2{-7} Minuscule, 3/2/2026, 6758.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com